Thrive's data shows the number of companies reaching $100B+ valuation grew faster last decade than those reaching $10B. This suggests it's a higher-probability bet to identify future mega-winners from an established pool of large companies than to pick breakout unicorns from a much larger, riskier field of thousands.

Venture-backed private companies represent a massive, $5 trillion market cap, exceeding half the value of the 'Magnificent Seven' public tech stocks. This scale signifies that private markets are now a mature, institutional asset class, not a small corner of finance.

Contrary to the belief that number two players can be viable, most tech markets are winner-take-all. The market leader captures the vast majority of economic value, making investments in second or third-place companies extremely risky.

In the hybrid capital market, the ability to deploy capital at scale is a significant competitive advantage. While many firms can handle smaller $20-40 million deals, very few can quickly underwrite and commit to a $500+ million transaction. This scarcity of scaled players creates a less competitive, inefficient market for those who can operate at that level.

Unlike private equity (terminal value) or syndicated loans (interest-only), asset-based finance (ABF) provides front-loaded cash flows of both principal and interest. This structure inherently de-risks the investment over time, often returning significant capital before a potential default occurs.

Alternative asset managers cannot simply create a product and expect private wealth channels to 'fill the bucket.' Success requires a significant, dedicated infrastructure for wholesaling, marketing, and advisor education across various dealer channels—a resource-intensive commitment that serves as a high barrier to entry.

Increased retail access to alternatives helps level the playing field between individual and institutional investors. However, capturing this opportunity favors large, scaled managers like Blackstone and Apollo who can afford brand marketing and distribution. This dynamic accelerates industry consolidation, widening the gap between mega-firms and smaller managers.

The firm targets markets structured like the famous movie scene: first place wins big, second gets little, and third fails. They believe most tech markets, even B2B SaaS without network effects, concentrate value in the #1 player, making leadership essential for outsized returns.