Much of the research on leadership is done by business school professors studying sports coaches. Sports offer a reproducible environment with clear rules, frequent games, and comparable teams, making it an ideal testing ground for principles that are harder to isolate in the messy business world.
Diamond reconciles his macro-historical theories with studies of individual leaders. He argues geography explains long-term civilizational outcomes (e.g., why Europeans colonized America), while individual agency (e.g., Jeff Bezos) explains specific, shorter-term business phenomena.
Carson's success wasn't just her message. Her status outside academia (avoiding claims of "prostituting science"), poetic writing, and calm demeanor gave her unique credibility. This allowed her to launch the environmental movement years before a different type of messenger could have.
For 5,000 years, a mass-market pomegranate juice industry didn't exist due to high barriers. Its creation by the Resnick family required solving a hard technical problem (processing the rind) and a business model (investing over $150M and waiting 18 years for profit) that no competitor could justify.
Diamond asserts that a lifetime of high-stakes, face-to-face communication gives Papuan villagers a sophisticated arsenal of negotiating tactics. This allows them to outmaneuver modern, screen-mediated professionals whose direct social skills have atrophied.
Diamond controversially suggests Papuans may be more curious and intelligent than Westerners. He hypothesizes that while European survival depended on resisting disease, Papuan survival depended on navigating a difficult environment and constant warfare, selecting for cognitive traits.
The sudden explosion of art, tools, and complex societies might be explained by the physical ability to speak. Diamond suggests anatomical changes in the human voice box enabled complex language, providing the catalyst for this cognitive and cultural revolution.
Contrary to the view from 20 years ago, Diamond is now more optimistic about the environment, partly due to big business. Companies like Walmart and even oil firms like Chevron now proactively pursue sustainability, driven by consumer pressure and the financial risks of environmental damage.
Diamond posits that over long historical arcs, contextual factors and the presence of other potential leaders mean no single individual is indispensable. If one charismatic figure had not existed, another likely would have emerged to fill a similar role, albeit with probabilistic differences.
We celebrate leaders for their tangible achievements but overlook those who prevent disasters, whose impact is invisible. John F. Kennedy's greatest act may have been averting nuclear war during the Cuban Missile Crisis—a consequential but un-built legacy that is easily forgotten.