PIMCO distinguishes between risk (a known distribution of outcomes) and uncertainty (an unknown distribution). The software sector faces uncertainty from AI disruption, making it impossible to assign a terminal value to businesses and trapping them in a valuation limbo that paralyzes investment.
PIMCO's Lothfi Karui warns the AI build-out is imbalanced. Most value is captured by semiconductor firms, not the hyperscalers spending billions on capex. This is unsustainable; if the spenders cannot monetize their massive investments, the entire cycle could break.
Despite weak documentation, private credit deals proceed because lenders underwrite the sponsor relationship, not the legal text. For a top-tier sponsor in a preferred industry, lenders will forgo strong covenants and rely on their ongoing relationship as the primary form of protection.
Third Point expects the next structured credit opportunity to come from forced selling driven by ratings downgrades, not fundamental defaults. If BBB-rated CLO tranches are downgraded, insurance companies, who are major holders, will be forced to sell due to regulatory constraints, creating price dislocations.
Diameter Capital's analysis reveals a dangerous concentration in private credit, with roughly 50% of loans exposed to AI disruption risk (software, IT services). For a debt instrument with limited upside, this level of single-factor exposure is described as "crazy portfolio management."
A powerful, non-obvious driver for investment-grade debt is overfunded pension plans. They are selling equities after a strong run and reallocating to fixed income to lock in high yields and de-risk their portfolios, creating a massive wave of demand that absorbs record supply.
In a dicey market, Oaktree prefers lending to "tech and truck" businesses with regional density. These companies are less risky than high-growth tech because they can't be displaced by software, have strong competitive moats in their local area, and grow via bolt-on acquisitions.
Morgan Stanley's Anish Shah reveals AI-related financing will hit $400-500B this year, representing 10-15% of all credit issuance. This new sector emerged from zero just two years ago and has already become the largest non-financial vertical in the entire credit market.
Oaktree's Christina Lee worries that a slow deal pipeline builds a "fear of missing out" (FOMO) among investors. When deal flow finally picks up, this pent-up demand causes a rush to deploy capital, leading to looser underwriting, higher leverage, and lower spreads.
Diameter Capital argues buying discounted public stock of large software companies (e.g., Salesforce) offers better risk/reward than buying the private debt of a smaller software firm at 95 cents. Equity offers uncapped upside while the debt has low recovery values if AI disrupts the business.