The influence of independent researchers is growing, with their analyses moving markets in ways previously reserved for major financial institutions like Morgan Stanley. This shift indicates a decentralization of financial influence, where viral, in-depth reports can have significant, immediate market impact.
The internet eliminated information asymmetry for real estate agents, yet the profession thrives. This suggests roles involving guidance, negotiation, and emotional support have a durable value that technology struggles to replicate, offering a model for how human jobs can persist in the age of AI.
The narrative that successful tech platforms are simply "rent extractors" overlooks their fundamental value creation. DoorDash, for example, created a new market for at-home restaurant dining, massively increasing the addressable market for restaurants and creating new jobs for drivers, rather than just inserting itself into an existing transaction.
By slightly altering common words (e.g., "war" to "w-r"), social media accounts can increase engagement. The unusual spelling forces users to pause and reread, signaling to the algorithm that the content is engaging and thereby boosting its visibility, even if the comments are about the censorship itself.
Due to extreme uncertainty and a lack of real-time data, discussions about AI's future, even among top executives, are fundamentally about storytelling. The void of concrete knowledge is being filled by narratives of either utopia or dystopia, making the discourse more literary than purely analytical.
The perceived speed of technological displacement is more critical than the change itself. A 20-year horizon allows industries and individuals to adapt, learn, and integrate new tools. A rapid 2-year horizon, however, creates widespread fear and unrest because it outpaces society's ability to adjust.