The traditional PE model—GPs exit assets and LPs reinvest—is breaking down. GPs no longer trust that overallocated LPs will "round trip" capital into their next fund. This creates a powerful incentive to use continuation vehicles to retain assets, grow fee-related earnings, and avoid the fundraising market.
The 15 largest PE firms control 20% of industry AUM and have mastered capital aggregation through insurance and wealth channels. Their primary business challenge is now deploying this capital into enough quality deals, while every other firm still struggles to raise funds.
In a world of high valuations and compressed returns, LPs can no longer be passive allocators. They must build capabilities for real-time portfolio management, actively buying and selling fund positions based on data-driven views of relative value and liquidity. This active management is a new source of LP alpha.
An estimated 15-20% of all private equity "distributions" in the last two years were not traditional sales or IPOs, but "inorganic" transactions like continuation funds and NAV loans. This means the actual yield from organic, market-driven exits is even lower than the already-dismal headline numbers suggest.
Arctos Partners' 10-level framework shows that firms at the same complexity level (e.g., a Level 8 infrastructure fund and a Level 8 buyout fund) face more similar market pressures and organizational challenges than firms with the same investment strategy but different complexity levels.
While the dollar value of PE distributions has been stable, the unrealized book value (NAV) has tripled in five years. This has caused the distribution yield—distributions relative to NAV—to plummet to a historic low. This yield metric, not raw dollar exits, is the critical factor constraining LP capital and new fund commitments.
Similar to professional sports, the asset management industry has become hyper-competitive. As the baseline skill level of all participants becomes exceptionally high, the difference between them narrows. This makes random chance, or luck, a larger determinant of who wins in any given deal or fund cycle, making repeatable alpha harder.
Firms that spin out from large financial institutions often start with a "stewardship" or "shepherding" mentality, rather than a strong founder-centric culture. This architectural difference from day one leads to more seamless and stable transitions of leadership and economics compared to firms where the founder's name is "on the door."