Contrary to the perception of human market watchers who recall extreme events, quantitative analysis reveals the typical Trump post is not associated with an unusually large move in Treasury yields. Significant, market-moving posts are rare exceptions, not the rule, highlighting a common cognitive bias.
The market impact of President Trump's posts on a given topic, such as tariffs or the Middle East, weakens over time. Even if an issue remains significant, its ability to move interest rates diminishes after the initial shock, demonstrating a market "decay effect" or desensitization to familiar news.
Financial firms are paying $100k monthly for API access to Truth Social data. The strategy is to use AI to instantly analyze President Trump's posts for market-moving potential and execute trades automatically, aiming to profit in the fraction of a second before human traders can react.