EM local markets have surprisingly not reacted to a nearly 20% surge in oil prices. Analysts believe investors are dismissing the rally as either a temporary geopolitical premium or, more importantly, a consequence of strong global demand. This latter interpretation makes the price increase less concerning for oil-importing nations.
Past geopolitical flare-ups in the Middle East created risk premiums in local markets (e.g., Israel) that were brief and reversed quickly. Consequently, analysts advise against positioning for these events, viewing them as manageable risks rather than strategic opportunities, especially as hedging options like market volatility are already priced high.
While US equities have traditionally been a bellwether for global sentiment, a significant rotation is underway. Stagnant US tech stocks are being overshadowed by strong performance elsewhere, with European equities up 6% and Emerging Market equities up 13%. This suggests capital is flowing into other markets, reducing EM's dependence on US performance.
The UAE is being phased out of major EM sovereign bond indices because it has become too wealthy. This technical rebalancing will force an estimated $7 billion in selling from passive funds. The redistribution of this weight will primarily benefit countries like Malaysia, Nigeria, Uruguay, and Saudi Arabia, while increasing Latin America's overall index share.