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  2. Why Tomatoes Are the Most Expensive They've Been in Four Decades
Why Tomatoes Are the Most Expensive They've Been in Four Decades

Why Tomatoes Are the Most Expensive They've Been in Four Decades

Odd Lots · Jun 11, 2026

Tomato prices hit a 40-year high due to a perfect storm of Florida freezes and Mexican tariffs. Learn the supply chain and pricing dynamics.

Food Distributor Baldor Succeeds by Being a 'Highliner,' Not a Broadliner

In a market dominated by 'broadliners' like Cisco that carry everything, specialty distributor Baldor thrives by being a 'highliner.' This strategy focuses on a curated, high-quality assortment and expert merchandising, differentiating on quality and expertise rather than sheer SKU count.

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Why Tomatoes Are the Most Expensive They've Been in Four Decades

Odd Lots·3 days ago

Modern Grocers Offset Delivery Costs by Monetizing Customer Data

Grocery stores maintain stable margins despite adding huge costs for e-commerce and delivery infrastructure. They offset these expenses by becoming data companies, selling customer purchasing data to their CPG suppliers, and by maintaining higher prices after wholesale costs fall.

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Why Tomatoes Are the Most Expensive They've Been in Four Decades

Odd Lots·3 days ago

Fresh and Canned Tomato Markets are Entirely Separate and Uncorrelated

A price spike in fresh tomatoes has no impact on canned tomato prices because they are completely different markets. They use distinct tomato varieties, are grown in separate regions (canned is primarily California), and operate on entirely different supply chains and long-term contracting models.

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Why Tomatoes Are the Most Expensive They've Been in Four Decades

Odd Lots·3 days ago

Supermarket Produce Is Bred for Shipping Durability, Sacrificing Flavor

The often bland taste of mass-market produce like strawberries is a deliberate trade-off. For decades, varieties were bred primarily for logistical function—firmness and resilience to survive cross-country shipping—rather than for flavor. This created the quality gap between supermarket and farm-fresh produce.

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Why Tomatoes Are the Most Expensive They've Been in Four Decades

Odd Lots·3 days ago

Restaurants, Not Consumers, Drive Demand for New Food Trends

New food trends, like specialty tomato varieties, are driven top-down from restaurants to consumers. Chefs adopt unique, high-flavor ingredients first. This exposure on menus creates consumer curiosity and demand, which eventually pulls these novel products into mainstream retail channels.

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Why Tomatoes Are the Most Expensive They've Been in Four Decades

Odd Lots·3 days ago

Florida's Crop Failure Reveals Fragility of US Winter Tomato Supply Chain

A major price spike was caused by freezes in Florida wiping out 80% of its crop. Since Florida provides 30% of the US winter supply and demand is inelastic, this single regional weather event created a massive nationwide supply shock, highlighting the system's vulnerability.

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Why Tomatoes Are the Most Expensive They've Been in Four Decades

Odd Lots·3 days ago

Restaurants Tolerate Volatile Ingredient Prices Since Food is Only 30% of Costs

Restaurants can accept highly variable daily pricing for ingredients because food accounts for only about 30% of their total costs. In contrast, for grocery stores, food is ~75% of costs, forcing them to seek stable, long-term contracts. This structural difference dictates their procurement strategies.

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Why Tomatoes Are the Most Expensive They've Been in Four Decades

Odd Lots·3 days ago

Stricter Immigration Policy Is a Key Driver of Record-High Freight Costs

Soaring US freight costs are not just about fuel. A key contributing factor is a shrinking supply of truckers, which is partly due to stricter immigration enforcement affecting the availability of drivers crossing the border from Mexico. This labor shortage has helped push shipping rates to unprecedented levels.

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Why Tomatoes Are the Most Expensive They've Been in Four Decades

Odd Lots·3 days ago

Retailers Exploit Supply Shocks to Test and Set Higher Permanent Price Floors

Grocers raise prices quickly during shortages ('like a rocket') but lower them slowly ('like a feather'). They use periods of high wholesale costs to establish new, higher price floors with consumers, who are less informed about market rates than professional buyers like chefs.

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Why Tomatoes Are the Most Expensive They've Been in Four Decades

Odd Lots·3 days ago

Mexico Flipped US Winter Tomato Supply from 20% to 70% Post-NAFTA

Since NAFTA, the US winter tomato supply has inverted. It went from 80% domestic to 70% Mexican-grown. This dramatic shift was driven by Mexico's favorable climate and rapid adoption of higher-yield technologies like shade houses and greenhouses, which Florida growers did not match.

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Why Tomatoes Are the Most Expensive They've Been in Four Decades

Odd Lots·3 days ago