The idea that QE wasn't inflationary is a fallacy. It massively inflated financial assets and housing, not consumer goods. This widened wealth inequality and fueled intergenerational tensions, which became a primary driver for the rise of populism—an unintended consequence that central banks eventually acknowledged.
Bond vigilantes are seeking a target to punish for fiscal irresponsibility. While the US and France have worse debt profiles, they are shielded by the dollar's reserve status and the Eurozone, respectively. The UK, lacking these protections, is the 'weakest kid in the playground' and most likely to face a market reckoning.
The endgame for unsustainable government debt is not austerity but monetization. Albert Edwards argues that political weakness and fiscal incontinence will eventually force central banks to print money to cover debts. This 'fiscal dominance' will mark a return to the double-digit inflation levels of the 1970s.
A permanent bear's role at a major bank is not just to be negative, but to provide a coherent, opposing viewpoint. This allows institutional clients to stress-test their bullish theses and consider downside risks, akin to having someone remind them to dance near the fire escapes.
The post-COVID paradigm shift occurred when stimulus moved from Wall Street (QE) to Main Street (direct checks, MMT-style policy). Injecting money directly into the real economy, especially amidst severe supply constraints, was the true catalyst that broke the decades-long disinflationary trend.
Modern Monetary Theory's prescription to raise taxes when capacity constraints create inflation is theoretically sound but politically impossible. Democratically elected governments are congenitally unable to implement austerity after providing stimulus, creating a one-way path to uncontrolled inflation.
The AI bubble resembles the telecom bubble of the late 90s, where massive, real CapEx on physical infrastructure (fiber optic cables then, GPUs now) created real profits for suppliers. The danger is this euphoria, funded by cheap capital, leads to overinvestment with no guarantee of long-term profitability.
The intense competition in AI is forcing mega-cap tech companies to spend enormous sums on capital expenditures. This is rapidly eroding their previously massive free cash flow generation, fundamentally transforming their financial profiles from cash-rich to cash-burning as they invest in an uncertain future.
Beneath the surface of AI-driven growth, the US consumer is strained. Real income growth is flat, and spending is sustained only by a rapidly falling savings rate, now at pre-2008 crisis lows. This indicates the economy is more fragile than headlines suggest and vulnerable to a spending pullback.