The old VC mindset of "let your winners run" and waiting for an IPO is gone. Today's GPs must act as fiduciaries by creating liquidity plans, proactively orchestrating secondary sales, and navigating complex buyout deals with partial rollovers to generate returns for LPs.

The traditional PE model—GPs exit assets and LPs reinvest—is breaking down. GPs no longer trust that overallocated LPs will "round trip" capital into their next fund. This creates a powerful incentive to use continuation vehicles to retain assets, grow fee-related earnings, and avoid the fundraising market.

The traditional IPO exit is being replaced by a perpetual secondary market for elite private companies. This new paradigm provides liquidity for investors and employees without the high costs and regulatory burdens of going public. This shift fundamentally alters the venture capital lifecycle, enabling longer private holding periods.

General Partners (GPs) have shifted from viewing secondary sales as an LP-driven nuisance to a strategic tool. They now facilitate liquidity for investors to maintain their reputation and use continuation vehicles to retain top-performing assets beyond a fund's original lifespan.

PE firms are struggling to sell assets acquired in 2020-21, causing distributions to plummet from 30% to 10% annually. This cash crunch prevents investors from re-upping into new funds, shrinking the pool of capital and further depressing the PE-to-PE exit market, trapping investor money.

The unprecedented 3-4 year drought in private equity liquidity has fundamentally broken traditional Limited Partner models. LPs, who historically planned on a 4-year cash flow cycle for receiving distributions, are now facing an 8-9 year cycle, creating immense pressure on their allocation and return models.

The rigid 10-year fund model is outdated for companies staying private longer. The future is permanent capital vehicles with hedge fund-like structures, offering long durations and built-in redemption features for LPs who need liquidity.

An estimated 15-20% of all private equity "distributions" in the last two years were not traditional sales or IPOs, but "inorganic" transactions like continuation funds and NAV loans. This means the actual yield from organic, market-driven exits is even lower than the already-dismal headline numbers suggest.

Howard Marks highlights a critical issue in private equity: a massive overhang of portfolio companies needing to be sold to return capital. Higher interest rates have made exits difficult, creating a liquidity bottleneck that slows distributions to LPs and commitments to new funds.