A 10x increase in compute may only yield a one-tier improvement in model performance. This appears inefficient but can be the difference between a useless "6-year-old" intelligence and a highly valuable "16-year-old" intelligence, unlocking entirely new economic applications.

The original playbook of simply scaling parameters and data is now obsolete. Top AI labs have pivoted to heavily designed post-training pipelines, retrieval, tool use, and agent training, acknowledging that raw scaling is insufficient to solve real-world problems.

AI model capabilities follow a predictable, non-linear scaling law: increasing training compute by 10x roughly doubles a model's capabilities. This exponential relationship, rather than an incremental one, is what will drive underappreciated and disruptive advancements across many industries.

The relationship between computing power and AI model capability is not linear. According to established 'scaling laws,' a tenfold increase in the compute used for training large language models (LLMs) results in roughly a doubling of the model's capabilities, highlighting the immense resources required for incremental progress.

Today's AI boom is fueled by scaling computation, which is a known engineering challenge. The alternative, embedding nuanced, human-like inductive biases, is far harder as it requires a deep understanding of the problem space. This difficulty gap explains why massive models dominate AI development over more targeted, efficient ones—scaling is simply the more straightforward path.

Simply scaling models on internet data won't solve specialized problems like curing cancer or discovering materials. While scaling laws hold for in-domain tasks, the model must be optimized against the specific data distribution it needs to learn from—which for science, requires generating new experimental data.

Unlike traditional ML where models are repeatedly trained on a fixed dataset, each frontier LLM pre-training run uses more compute than ever before. This makes it a one-shot endeavor where success hinges on accurately predicting final performance from smaller-scale experiments using scaling laws.

Simply "scaling up" (adding more GPUs to one model instance) hits a performance ceiling due to hardware and algorithmic limits. True large-scale inference requires "scaling out" (duplicating instances), creating a new systems problem of managing and optimizing across a distributed fleet.

The era of guaranteed progress by simply scaling up compute and data for pre-training is ending. With massive compute now available, the bottleneck is no longer resources but fundamental ideas. The AI field is re-entering a period where novel research, not just scaling existing recipes, will drive the next breakthroughs.