After a decade of zero rates and QE post-2008, the financial system can no longer function without continuous stimulus. Attempts to tighten policy, as seen with the 2018 repo crisis, immediately cause breakdowns, forcing central banks to reverse course and indicating a permanent state of intervention.

A surge in IPOs and M&A isn't driven by pro-business policies, but by a reduction in policy uncertainty. With a clearer, albeit more interventionist, landscape, companies have the confidence to execute major strategic plans they had previously postponed.

In an era of financial repression and heavy government intervention, the most effective investment strategy is to identify sectors receiving direct government support. By positioning capital near these "money spigots," investors can benefit from policies designed to manage the economy, regardless of traditional market fundamentals.

Despite weak underlying economic data, the probability of a recession is not over 50% due to anticipated policy stimulus. This includes Fed rate cuts, major tax cuts, and deregulation, which are expected to provide significant, albeit temporary, economic support.

Large, ongoing fiscal deficits are now the primary driver of the U.S. economy, a factor many macro analysts are missing. This sustained government spending creates a higher floor for economic activity and asset prices, rendering traditional monetary policy indicators less effective and making the economy behave more like a fiscally dominant state.

The market is focusing on individual positives like earnings growth and Fed easing, but the real story is the reinforcing interplay between deregulation, operating leverage, and accommodative monetary and fiscal policy. This collective impact is being underestimated by investors.

The U.S. is experiencing a rare combination of easing monetary, fiscal, and regulatory policies at the same time. This trifecta of support, typically reserved for dire economic conditions, is creating a favorable environment where markets can run hot and valuations may overshoot their typical levels.

The era of constant central bank intervention has rendered traditional value investing irrelevant. Market movements are now dictated by liquidity and stimulus flows, not by fundamental analysis of a company's intrinsic value. Investors must now track the 'liquidity impulse' to succeed.

The US economy is seeing a rare combination of high government deficits, massive AI-driven corporate investment, and bank deregulation. If the Federal Reserve also cuts rates based on labor market fears, this confluence of fiscal, corporate, and monetary stimulus could ignite unprecedented corporate risk-taking if growth holds up.