It's easy to claim you'll be "greedy when others are fearful." But a real crisis isn't just cheap stocks; it involves personal threats like health emergencies and job insecurity. You can't know your true tolerance for pain until you've been tested in the trenches of real-world uncertainty.
True investment prowess isn't complex strategies; it's emotional discipline. Citing Napoleon, the ability to simply do the average thing—like not panic selling—when everyone else is losing their mind is what defines top-tier performance. Behavioral fortitude during a crisis is the ultimate financial advantage.
The essence of the entrepreneurial journey is the ability to tolerate immense uncertainty and fear over long periods. It involves working for months or years with little visible progress, making high-stakes decisions with limited information, and shouldering the responsibility for others' livelihoods. This psychological endurance is the ultimate differentiator.
Doing well financially isn't about complex strategies; it's about survival. The ability to endure market downturns, career setbacks, and unexpected events without being wiped out is the prerequisite for long-term compounding. As the founder of Four Seasons said, "excellence is the capacity to take pain."
Investors consistently overestimate their risk tolerance on questionnaires because they know the "correct" answer. However, during an actual crisis, fear feels entirely rational and justified, leading them to panic and sell despite their stated intentions.
Conventional definitions of risk, like volatility, are flawed. True risk is an event you did not anticipate that forces you to abandon your strategy at a bad time. Foreseeable events, like a 50% market crash, are not risks but rather expected parts of the market cycle that a robust strategy should be built to withstand.
Investors should establish a baseline risk level on a 0-100 scale based on personal factors like age and wealth. This becomes their default posture. The more advanced skill is then to tactically deviate from this baseline—becoming more or less aggressive—based on whether the prevailing market environment is offering generous or precarious opportunities.
Distinguish between everyday impulses (often unreliable) and true intuition, which becomes a powerful survival guide during genuine crises. Our hardwired survival mechanisms provide clarity when stakes are highest, a state difficult to replicate in non-crisis situations.
The best times to invest, like market bottoms during a crisis, often coincide with peak personal financial instability, such as job loss. This makes the common advice to "buy the dip" or "hold on" practically impossible for many, beyond just behavioral challenges.
Hetty Green's famous strategy to "buy when things are low" was enabled by two key factors: always having cash on hand and possessing the emotional stability to act decisively when others were panicking. Having liquidity is useless without the courage to deploy it during a crisis, a combination few possess.
A whole generation of market participants has never experienced a true, prolonged downturn, having been conditioned to always 'buy the dip' in a central bank-supported environment. This lack of crisis experience could exacerbate the next real recession, as ingrained behaviors prove ineffective or harmful.