Unpredictable foreign policy, like threatening to attack a NATO ally over Greenland, erodes international trust. This directly endangers a key U.S. economic vulnerability: its reliance on foreign nations to buy its debt. Such actions could make it 'unpopular to buy or hold U.S. debt,' weaponizing capital against America.
America's ability to deficit spend relies on the world's appetite for US debt, which allows it to export inflation. If countries dump this debt, the US can no longer "tax the world," triggering immediate domestic austerity and creating a global power vacuum likely to be filled by China.
Modern global conflict is primarily economic, not kinetic. Nations now engage in strategic warfare through currency debasement, asset seizures, and manipulating capital flows. The objective is to inflict maximum financial damage on adversaries, making economic policy a primary weapon of war.
The US is not facing a single issue but a convergence of multiple stressors. Unsustainable fiscal policy, fragile funding markets, geopolitical shifts, energy production issues, and leveraged financial players create a highly volatile environment where one failure could trigger a cascade.
The U.S. administration's attempt to acquire Greenland and subsequent tariff threats against European allies triggered a direct, named market reaction called the 'Sell America' trade. This saw countries like Denmark actively selling off U.S. treasuries, showing a direct link between diplomatic actions and investor behavior.
For decades, a tacit global agreement existed: the U.S. buys the world's goods and provides security, and in return, the world finances U.S. debt by buying Treasuries. As U.S. policy shifts towards protectionism and reduced global policing, other nations may no longer feel obligated to fund U.S. deficits, pushing borrowing costs higher.
The "military backs the dollar" thesis is being challenged by Russia's performance against NATO, the disruption of naval power by cheap Houthi drones, and China's chokehold on rare earths. This erosion of credible power projection directly weakens the dollar's foundation of global dominance.
Even though President Trump backed down on tariffs over Greenland, the episode permanently eroded European trust in the U.S. as a reliable NATO partner. The erratic nature of the dispute raised serious questions about American dependability on more critical issues like Ukraine, suggesting long-term damage to the alliance.
The central strategy in macroeconomics is to stifle volatility in foundational markets like bonds and foreign exchange. This engineered stability allows nominal GDP to outpace debt, effectively devaluing it over time. This delicate balance is most vulnerable to unpredictable geopolitical shocks that can shatter the low-volatility regime.
As foreign nations sell off US debt, promoting stablecoins backed by US Treasuries creates a new, decentralized global market of buyers. This shrewdly helps the US manage its debt and extend the life of its reserve currency status for decades.
The aggressive, go-it-alone tactics of the 'America First' doctrine alienate both allies and adversaries. This pushes them to build alternative payment systems and trade alliances, speeding up the very de-dollarization and decline in U.S. influence that the strategy aims to prevent.