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A systemic flaw of secondary investors is their focus on a two-year underwriting horizon. This short-sightedness, driven by a desire for knowable outcomes, causes them to miss out on massive, long-term compounding assets like SpaceX, where the true upside was unpredictable and unfolded over a much longer period.
Because VCs can't easily sell, they're forced to focus on a company's fundamental value growth over 5-10 years, ignoring short-term price swings. Public market investors can adopt this mindset to gain an edge over the market's obsession with quarterly performance.
Some companies execute a 3-5 year plan and then revert to average returns. Others 'win by winning'—their success creates new opportunities and network effects, turning them into decade-long compounders that investors often sell too early.
The biggest venture outcomes often take 8-10 years or more to mature. Instead of optimizing for quick IRR, early-stage VCs should embrace long holding periods. This "duration" is a feature that allows for massive value creation and aligns with building truly transformative companies, prioritizing multiples over short-term gains.
Contrary to the belief that public markets are short-term focused, they have shown a greater tolerance for long investment cycles than the venture ecosystem often gives them credit for. Companies like Amazon, during its AWS buildout, and Tesla have been rewarded by public investors for making long-term bets, suggesting public markets can be patient capital.
Contrary to the venture ecosystem's belief, public markets often support long-term investment cycles, as seen with Tesla and Amazon's build-out phases. The market is more patient with companies making strategic, long-horizon bets than it's given credit for.
The modern market is driven by short-term incentives, with hedge funds and pod shops trading based on quarterly estimates. This creates volatility and mispricing. An investor who can withstand short-term underperformance and maintain a multi-year view can exploit these structural inefficiencies.
The traditional VC model of decreasing returns at later stages is breaking. As companies stay private longer, they can have fundamental transformations (e.g., SpaceX's Starlink). This creates opportunities for late-stage investors to capture 'Series A-like' upside in mature companies, inverting the typical risk-reward curve.
Public market investors systematically underestimate sustained high growth (e.g., 60%+), defaulting to models that assume rapid deceleration. This creates an opportunity for private investors with longer time horizons to more accurately value these companies.
Founders Fund's investment in SpaceX is cited as one of the best ever, largely because they held the position for over a decade. This contrasts with the common VC practice of distributing shares at IPO, demonstrating that true generational returns come from long-term conviction, not quick exits.
By staying private longer, elite companies like SpaceX allow venture and growth funds to capture compounding returns previously reserved for public markets. This extended "growth super cycle" has become the most profitable strategy for late-stage private investors.