Contrary to the prevailing wisdom of staying private as long as possible, VC Keith Rabois counsels his portfolio companies to pursue an IPO once they hit ~$50 million in predictable revenue. He believes the benefits of being public outweigh the costs much earlier than most founders think.

An IPO at a valuation that's flat compared to the last private round suggests the company is distressed. It implies the private markets are tapped out and the company is being forced to go public out of a desperate need for capital, rather than from a position of strength.

With hundreds of unicorns and only about 20 tech IPOs per year, the market has a 30-year backlog. Consolidations between mid-size unicorns, like the potential Fivetran and dbt deal, are a necessary strategy for VCs to create IPO-ready companies and generate much-needed liquidity from their portfolios.

In the current market, companies prioritize liquidity and public market access over protecting previous private valuations. A lower IPO price is no longer seen as a failure but as a necessary market correction to move forward and ensure survival.

The most lucrative exit for a startup is often not an IPO, but an M&A deal within an oligopolistic industry. When 3-4 major players exist, they can be forced into an irrational bidding war driven by the fear of a competitor acquiring the asset, leading to outcomes that are even better than going public.

For late-stage startups, securing a pre-IPO round led by a premier public market investor like Fidelity is a strategic move. It provides more than capital; it offers a crucial stamp of approval that builds significant confidence and credibility with Wall Street ahead of an IPO.

For high-growth companies, reaching a $100M ARR milestone no longer automatically triggers IPO plans. With abundant private capital, many founders now see going public as an unnecessary burden, preferring to avoid SEC reporting and gain liquidity through private growth rounds.

With trillion-dollar IPOs likely, the old model where early VCs win by having later-stage VCs "mark up" their deals is obsolete. The new math dictates that significant ownership in a category winner is immensely valuable at any stage, fundamentally changing investment strategy for the entire industry.

While merging portfolio companies is strategically sound, it's often blocked by investor incentives (e.g., diluting a 20% stake in a winner down to 8%). The process is vastly simplified when a single firm, like Andreessen Horowitz in the Fivetran/dbt case, is a major investor in both companies, which aligns incentives.