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Despite the x86 (CISC) architecture's long reign in PCs, the proliferation of ARM-based (RISC) chips in mobile and other devices means RISC architectures now account for 99% of all processors, effectively winning the historic debate.

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Arm's success in modern mobile chips, including Apple Silicon, is rooted in its original mission: designing low-power, low-heat CPUs for 1990s Personal Digital Assistants (PDAs) like the Palm Pilot. This early focus on battery efficiency created the architectural foundation for the smartphone revolution.

Nvidia and Arm are simultaneously competing (Nvidia sells its own Arm-based CPU) and cooperating. Every Arm-based Nvidia chip sold helps challenge the Intel/AMD x86 duopoly and expands the software ecosystem for Arm architecture, which in turn benefits Arm's own direct chip sales.

To compete with the speed of RISC architectures, Intel's CISC-based x86 processors adopted a hybrid approach. They internally translate complex x86 instructions into simpler, RISC-like instructions for execution, gaining performance benefits while maintaining crucial backward compatibility.

NVIDIA and ARM are engaged in 'coopetition.' While they directly compete with their respective ARM-based CPUs, their combined success strengthens the ARM software ecosystem. This creates a powerful, unified front that challenges the longstanding dominance of the x86 architecture from Intel and AMD in the data center.

The viability of RISC architecture hinged on compilers becoming sophisticated enough to efficiently manage low-level instructions and register allocation. This software co-evolution was critical to bridging the gap between high-level programming languages and the simpler hardware.

ARM, known for its high-margin IP licensing, is now manufacturing its own chips. While this drastically lowers gross margins from 97% to ~50%, it's a strategic move to capture a much larger revenue opportunity created by the CPU demand from AI agents.

The focus on GPUs for AI overlooks a critical bottleneck: CPU shortages. AI agents require massive CPU power for non-GPU tasks like web queries and data prep. This demand is straining existing infrastructure and creating new market opportunities for CPU makers like ARM.

ARM is pivoting from its high-margin IP licensing model to manufacturing its own AI chips. This strategic shift, aimed at partners like Meta and OpenAI, is a bid to capture a larger share of the booming AI market, even though it will slash gross margins from 97% to around 50%.

By launching its own CPU and competing directly with its licensing customers like NVIDIA and Qualcomm, Arm is creating a conflict of interest. This bold move could push its own partners to adopt open-source alternatives like RISC-V to de-risk their supply chains and avoid dependency on a direct competitor.

The foundation for today's mobile computing revolution wasn't the smartphone, but the Personal Digital Assistant (PDA) of the 1990s. ARM's creation was driven by the specific need for efficient, battery-powered chips for devices like the Palm Pilot, establishing the architectural principles that now power nearly every smartphone.

ARM's 99% Market Share Proves RISC Won the Architecture War Over CISC | RiffOn