Airlines create immense value for society but capture almost none of it as profit, making them bad businesses. Google creates less total societal value but captures a huge portion. The ability to capture value is more critical than the volume of value created.
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The 20th-century view of shareholder primacy is flawed. By focusing first on creating wins for all stakeholders—customers, employees, suppliers, and society—companies build a sustainable, beloved enterprise that paradoxically delivers superior returns to shareholders in the long run.
Two businesses with identical revenue and profit can have vastly different valuations. A company that runs independently is a valuable, sellable asset with a high multiple. One that requires the owner's constant involvement is just a high-stress job, with wealth accumulating only through taxed personal income.
A technology like AI can create immense societal value without generating wealth for its early investors or creators. The value can be captured by consumers through lower prices or by large incumbents who leverage the technology. Distinguishing between value creation and value capture is critical for investment analysis.
Traditional metrics like GDP fail to capture the value of intangibles from the digital economy. Profit margins, which reflect real-world productivity gains from technology, provide a more accurate and immediate measure of its true economic impact.
Despite theories that Google will offer its AI for free to bankrupt competitors, its deep-seated corporate culture of high margins (historically 80%+) makes a prolonged, zero-profit strategy difficult. As a public company, Google faces immense investor pressure to monetize new technologies quickly, unlike a startup.
History shows that transformative innovations like airlines, vaccines, and PCs, while beneficial to society, often fail to create sustained, concentrated shareholder value as they become commoditized. This suggests the massive valuations in AI may be misplaced, with the technology's benefits accruing more to users than investors in the long run.
Marks warns against conflating a technology's societal impact with its investment potential. Fierce competition among AI service providers or their customers could pass all productivity gains to consumers through lower prices. This would result in little to no profit for the underlying companies, echoing a similar warning from Warren Buffett during the dot-com era.
Don't get trapped in optimizing for efficiency (e.g., highest ROAS). Focus on maximizing absolute output (e.g., total profit), even if it means accepting diminishing returns. The difference between first and second place is everything, and it's won by maximizing total output, not by being the most efficient.
A profitable business that requires the founder's constant involvement is just a high-paying job, not a valuable asset. Enterprise value, which makes a business sellable, is only created when systems and employees can generate profit independently of the founder's direct labor.
Long-term business sustainability isn't about maximizing extraction. It's about intentionally providing more value (51%) to your entire ecosystem—customers, employees, and partners—than you take (49%). When you genuinely operate as if you work for your employees, you create the leverage for sustainable growth.
