To prevent a reckless race, a proposed solution is a U.S.-China treaty to govern the resources needed for frontier AI. This would involve tracking and monitoring advanced AI chips in data centers and imposing a verifiable cap on the computational power used for any single training run.

The immense resources needed for powerful AI, dictated by scaling laws, limits frontier development to a few well-funded, responsible actors. This centralization, while concerning, provides a temporary buffer against widespread misuse and allows for focused alignment efforts, as these few players are more easily monitored and engaged.

The path to surviving superintelligence is political: a global pact to halt its development, mirroring Cold War nuclear strategy. Success hinges on all leaders understanding that anyone building it ensures their own personal destruction, removing any incentive to cheat.

A global AI safety regime should learn from nuclear arms control by focusing on the physical infrastructure that enables strategic capabilities. Instead of just seeking promises, it should aim to control access to chokepoints like advanced chip manufacturing and the massive data centers required for frontier models.

The primary constraint on AI development is not software or algorithms but the physical infrastructure required to support it: power, data centers, and supply chains. Policy will focus on this area regardless of election outcomes, though the specific approach may differ.

Unlike social media, which scaled without physical impediments, AI's progress depends on massive, resource-intensive data centers. This physical footprint makes the industry vulnerable to local political opposition, regulations, and even violence, creating a new bottleneck for growth that pure software companies never faced.

The abstract race for AI superiority is now grounded in physical reality. Control over electricity grids, cooling, and land for data centers has become as strategically important as semiconductor supply chains, shaping who can scale frontier AI.

While ethical debates about AI's risks continue, the actual slowdown in AI's societal integration is being driven by practical constraints like the limited supply of compute, data centers, and grid power. This physical reality is a more powerful force for gradual adoption than any organized pause.

International AI treaties are feasible. Just as nuclear arms control monitors uranium and plutonium, AI governance can monitor the choke point for advanced AI: high-end compute chips from companies like NVIDIA. Tracking the global distribution of these chips could verify compliance with development limits.