The government's equity stake in Intel replaced a milestone-based grant system. This delinks the funding from specific performance targets, like building fabs, converting the deal into a higher-risk bet on the company's overall success rather than a payment for specific outcomes.
When governments become top shareholders, corporate focus shifts from pleasing customers to securing political favor and appropriations. R&D budgets are reallocated to lobbying, and market competition devolves from building the best product to playing the policy game most effectively, strangling innovation.
Instead of a large upfront equity investment, strategic partners can use warrants. This gives the corporation the option to earn equity later if the startup achieves specific milestones, often through their joint partnership. This approach de-risks the initial investment and directly rewards successful collaboration.
The U.S. is shifting from industry supporter to active owner by taking direct equity stakes in firms like Intel and U.S. Steel. This move blurs the lines between free markets and state control, risking a system where political connections, not performance, determine success.
The most effective government role in innovation is to act as a catalyst for high-risk, foundational R&D (like DARPA creating the internet). Once a technology is viable, the government should step aside to allow private sector competition (like SpaceX) to drive down costs and accelerate progress.
When the U.S. government becomes a major shareholder, it can create significant challenges for a company's international operations. Foreign governments and customers may view the company with suspicion, raising concerns about data privacy, security, and its role as a potential tool of U.S. policy.
Treat government programs as experiments. Define success metrics upfront and set a firm deadline. If the program fails to achieve its stated goals by that date, it should be automatically disbanded rather than being given more funding. This enforces accountability.
Historically, the U.S. government has only taken equity in private firms during bailouts with the goal of exiting quickly. Recent deals with companies like Intel represent a new strategy of long-term investment to bolster specific industries, a marked departure from past policy.
The deal with rare-earths miner MP Materials goes beyond simple subsidies. The government has agreed to purchase 100% of the magnet offtake and has also guaranteed a profit margin for the company. This structure effectively removes all market risk and discipline for private investors.
As part of its equity deal with Intel, the U.S. government has agreed to vote its 9.9% stake according to the board's recommendations. This arrangement effectively hands the board a powerful, stable voting bloc, insulating management from shareholder activism and reinforcing the existing power structure.
Building MVPs for startups in exchange for equity is extremely risky because 95% of them will fail. This model requires the agency to rigorously validate each startup's idea, market, and founder, similar to a VC firm. Without this de-risking, the agency is effectively working on a portfolio of doomed projects for free.