Contrary to popular belief, successful entrepreneurs are not reckless risk-takers. They are experts at systematically eliminating risk. They validate demand before building, structure deals to minimize capital outlay (e.g., leasing planes), and enter markets with weak competition. Their goal is to win with the least possible exposure.

After a failed European expansion, Bolt rejected conventional VC advice to target the US or Western Europe. Instead, they built a data model in Excel, ranking global cities by metrics like unemployment and car ownership. This led them to Africa, a non-obvious but highly successful market that became over 50% of their business in six months.

Startups pursuing an enterprise model face extreme external risks. After months of work, Sure's pivotal first B2B launch partner went out of business just one week before the go-live date. This highlights the fragility of relying on a single large partner and the resilience required to overcome setbacks outside your control.

Sure's journey shows that PMF is not binary. The company achieved initial PMF with its prototype, then again with its first product, and again after its pivot. However, launching auto insurance with a major EV brand created a "literal rocket ship" moment that represented a completely different order of magnitude of PMF.

After a disastrous London launch was shut down in 72 hours for bypassing regulators, Bolt learned a critical lesson. Their 'move fast' approach from low-regulation markets didn't work everywhere. This failure forced them to create a dual strategy: optimizing for speed in some countries and for risk mitigation and compliance in others.

European firm Permira successfully entered the US not by just opening an office, but by relocating its top talent, empowering local decision-making, and accepting years of minimal activity to build relationships and market knowledge before scaling.

When expanding his law firm, John Morgan uses a 'bullets before bombs' strategy. He first enters a new city with a small, low-cost team and ad budget (the 'bullets') to test viability. Only after seeing positive traction does he commit significant capital and resources (the 'bombs'), de-risking growth.

Instead of immediately hiring after validating his idea, the founder of Sure worked alone for a year. He used this time to secure the company's first critical insurance partner, ensuring the business was on stable footing before asking anyone else to leave their job and join the venture.

The Netherlands was an ideal starting market due to high construction density (short travel to pilot sites) and a single, nationwide building code. This homogeneity simplified product development and testing, unlike fragmented markets like the US or Germany, accelerating learning loops.