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Drawing parallels to the 1970s oil shocks which spurred nuclear power and fuel efficiency, the IEA head predicts the current crisis will not only boost renewables but also drive a strong comeback for nuclear and, counterintuitively, a resurgence of coal in Asia due to high gas prices.
Nations are incentivized to reduce oil dependence by adopting EVs. However, to ensure grid stability and affordability during the crisis, they are also turning to reliable, carbon-intensive coal power, creating a dynamic where electrification rises but so do emissions.
The current energy disruption involves a loss of 12 million barrels of oil per day, exceeding the combined total of the 1973 and 1979 crises. Additionally, natural gas losses are greater than during the Russia-Ukraine crisis, making this the largest energy security threat in history.
The massive energy consumption of AI has made tech giants the most powerful force advocating for new power sources. Their commercial pressure is finally overcoming decades of regulatory inertia around nuclear energy, driving rapid development and deployment of new reactor technologies to meet their insatiable demand.
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol quantifies the current energy crisis, stating that the loss of supply is greater than the 1973 oil crisis, the 1979 oil crisis, and the 2022 Russian gas crisis put together, making it an unprecedented global security threat.
Fifteen years after Fukushima, Japan is reviving its nuclear fleet due to an energy policy impasse. The country's shift to renewables proved harder and slower than anticipated, leaving it with an aging nuclear fleet and a heavy, vulnerable dependence on imported fossil fuels. The restart reflects a pragmatic, if controversial, necessity.
Contrary to expectations, surging power demand from data centers and semiconductor manufacturing in Japan and South Korea is not boosting LNG imports. Instead, national policies are prioritizing renewables and nuclear to meet this new demand, effectively capping growth for natural gas in these key established markets.
As a direct response to soaring natural gas prices, countries may pivot back to coal for energy security. The IEA anticipates an uptick in coal use, not just in China and India, but potentially in the US and Europe, as a pragmatic, if environmentally damaging, short-term solution.
The energy trilemma (clean, stable, abundant) has been reordered. Previously, 'clean' was the top priority. Now, driven by massive demand and geopolitical instability, the market and policymakers prioritize securing 'more' energy that is 'stable,' even if it means delaying decarbonization goals.
Perception of nuclear power is sharply divided by age. Those who remember the Three Mile Island accident are fearful, while younger generations, facing the climate crisis, see it as a clean solution. As this younger cohort gains power, a return to nuclear energy becomes increasingly likely.
The Japanese public's growing acceptance of restarting nuclear power is influenced less by domestic safety improvements and more by external pressures. The palpable reality of climate change and the economic vulnerability exposed by volatile global energy markets are making nuclear power seem like a necessary, if still risky, option.