Prior to the 1986 amnesty that granted citizenship to nearly 3 million immigrants, California voted Republican in 9 of 10 presidential elections. Since that policy change, the state has not voted Republican once in almost 40 years, serving as a powerful case study for how immigration policy can permanently shift the electoral map.
Former DHS Secretary Janet Napolitano reveals DACA was initiated immediately after Congress failed to pass the Dream Act. It wasn't a proactive policy but a reactive measure, using executive power to solve a problem the legislative branch couldn't, highlighting how executive action can stem from legislative paralysis.
States can increase congressional representation and electoral votes by boosting population counts for the census. This creates an incentive to attract residents, including illegal immigrants, and fund their needs by leveraging federal assistance programs, often through fraudulent means, effectively offloading the cost of gaining political power.
Because the census counts all residents regardless of legal status, blue states experiencing population decline due to citizen out-migration can maintain their congressional seats and electoral votes. This creates a powerful political incentive for Democrats to resist mass deportations, as it directly impacts their national power base.
Immigrant communities are often socially conservative and pro-business, values that align with conservative parties. However, Roy Ratneville argues they frequently vote for liberal parties out of fear, fueled by media portrayals of conservatives as anti-immigrant. This perception overrides their natural policy alignment.
America intentionally avoided solving illegal immigration because it serves a crucial economic purpose: providing a flexible, cheap labor force that doesn't draw on social safety nets. This benefits industries and consumers while placing little burden on the state.
A leader known for a tough immigration stance has the unique credibility to pivot towards an open, structured policy. This can neutralize opponents, appeal to independents, and address business needs, effectively allowing them to 'declare victory' and move on.
The U.S. Census counts every person, not just citizens, to allocate House seats and electoral votes. This creates an incentive for politicians to increase their state's population with non-citizens, as their mere presence increases that state's political power in Washington D.C., regardless of their voting eligibility.
Gov. Newsom's open admission that California provides healthcare to undocumented immigrants moves the public discourse. The argument is no longer about whether it happens, but whether it's a desirable policy, forcing a debate on fiscal responsibility versus compassionate spending.
A recurring political pattern involves well-intentioned progressive policies being implemented without regard for practical consequences (e.g., border management). This creates a political vacuum and public frustration that the far-right exploits, leading to a severe, often cruel, overcorrection that dismantles both the flawed policy and underlying positive intentions.
A welfare state with low barriers to entry incentivizes immigration for economic benefits. This can lead to systemic fraud and weakened voter laws as politicians cater to this new bloc to gain and retain power, even if it harms the state's long-term stability.