Beyond market forces, Intel's resurgence is significantly propped up by US government support. Viewing domestic chip manufacturing as a national security imperative, the government can influence hyperscalers to commit to buying from Intel, guaranteeing demand for its new fabs.

Tim Cook's public appearances with Trump are a strategic necessity driven by Apple's deep manufacturing entanglement in China. To avoid tariffs and supply chain disruptions that would harm shareholders, Cook must placate Trump, forcing a compromise of the company's publicly stated values.

It's naive to expect private companies to reverse the offshoring of chip manufacturing, a trend they initiated to maximize profits. Pat Gelsinger argues that markets don't price in long-term geopolitical risk, making substantial, long-term government industrial policy essential to bring supply chains back.

Apple's move to partner with Intel isn't just about geopolitics; it reflects its diminishing leverage with primary supplier TSMC. The insatiable demand for AI chips from companies like NVIDIA means Apple is no longer the undisputed top priority, forcing it to find additional manufacturing capacity to avoid its own product supply constraints.

Instead of simply giving TSMC CHIPS Act funds, the administration declared them in breach of DEI covenants in their contract (e.g., build a daycare in a clean room). They used this contractual leverage to renegotiate the deal, forcing TSMC to increase its investment from $60B to over $160B in exchange for waiving the clauses.

The US is allowing Nvidia to sell advanced chips to China again. The strategic calculus has shifted from simple resource hoarding to geopolitics: keeping China dependent on Taiwan's TSMC makes an invasion less likely, as it would destroy the very supply chain China needs for its AI ambitions.

Intel's revival and its landmark deal with Apple were not purely market-driven. The U.S. government, including the President and Commerce Secretary, actively pressured tech CEOs at Apple, NVIDIA, and SpaceX to partner with Intel, coupling direct investment with high-level deal-making to ensure the chipmaker's strategic success.

The government is no longer just a regulator but is becoming a financial partner and stakeholder in the tech industry. Actions like taking a cut of specific chip sales represent a major "fork in the road," indicating a new era of public-private relationships where government actively participates in financial outcomes.

Recent statements from the CCP suggesting a "peaceful reunification" with Taiwan, potentially driven by an energy crisis, amplify the geopolitical risk to TSMC. This makes investments in non-Taiwanese fabs, like those from Samsung and Intel, strategically critical for the American tech industry.