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  1. All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
  2. Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026
Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026

Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg · Jan 9, 2026

Commerce Secretary Lutnick details the strategy of using tariffs as leverage for reinvestment, drug price reduction, and achieving 6% GDP growth.

Leaders Must Weave Together Narrow Specialists to Achieve Broader Success

Government agencies are filled with "very narrow experts" who possess deep knowledge in specific domains. The role of a leader, according to Howard Lutnick, is not to be an expert in everything, but to act as a "weaver," combining the strengths of these specialists to create a cohesive and successful outcome.

Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026 thumbnail

Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg·a month ago

Execute Large Workforce Cuts Quickly to Prevent Lingering Anxiety

When taking over the Commerce Department, Howard Lutnick cut 20% of the workforce (12,000 people) immediately. His rationale is that making deep cuts quickly and decisively removes uncertainty. It signals to remaining employees that restructuring is over and "the next shoe is not going to drop tomorrow," allowing them to refocus.

Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026 thumbnail

Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg·a month ago

The U.S. Trade Deficit Is an Ownership Deficit, Not a Supermarket Transaction

Howard Lutnick reframes the trade deficit as a long-term transfer of national wealth. The U.S., an "inventor island," pays a "producer island" for goods, which then uses that money to buy up the inventor's assets. The key metric is the $26T net negative international investment position, not just the flow of goods.

Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026 thumbnail

Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg·a month ago

Government Shutdowns Artificially Depress GDP Due to a Productivity Quirk

Lutnick reveals an oddity in GDP calculation: furloughed federal employees, though still paid, are considered unproductive and thus subtracted from GDP. This accounting rule can create a misleadingly negative economic picture, with Lutnick estimating it could lower a quarterly GDP figure by as much as 1.5 percentage points.

Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026 thumbnail

Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg·a month ago

Trump's "Staircase" Negotiation Tactic Gives the First Mover the Best Deal

In multi-party negotiations, the first country to sign a deal gets the most favorable terms. Each subsequent deal is structured on a "higher stair," making it progressively less attractive. This creates intense pressure and FOMO, punishing those who wait and see, as demonstrated by India's costly delay.

Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026 thumbnail

Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg·a month ago

China's "Attack Chaos" Model Weaponizes Domestic Overproduction for Global Leverage

China's economic model, driven by internal provincial competition, creates massive overcapacity. This is intentionally turned into an asset by dumping subsidized products (like EVs) into foreign markets below cost. The goal is to eliminate foreign competitors, create dependency, and convert domestic economic chaos into international power.

Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026 thumbnail

Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg·a month ago

Commerce Department's Tariff "Hammer" Forced Big Pharma to Lower Drug Prices

To achieve Most Favored Nation (MFN) drug pricing, the administration paired HHS negotiators with the Commerce Secretary. While one team negotiated terms, the Commerce Secretary acted as the "hammer," holding a credible threat of crippling tariffs over pharmaceutical companies that primarily manufacture overseas. This forced compliance.

Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026 thumbnail

Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg·a month ago

Open Borders Are Only Viable for Nations Without a Social Welfare System

Howard Lutnick argues that America's historical success with open borders was possible only because the government offered no safety net. Immigrants had to be self-sufficient or they would fail and leave. He posits that once a nation establishes a welfare state, it must implement controlled borders to protect its resources.

Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026 thumbnail

Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg·a month ago

Trump Admin Used DEI Clause Breach to Force TSMC to Triple CHIPS Act Investment

Instead of simply giving TSMC CHIPS Act funds, the administration declared them in breach of DEI covenants in their contract (e.g., build a daycare in a clean room). They used this contractual leverage to renegotiate the deal, forcing TSMC to increase its investment from $60B to over $160B in exchange for waiving the clauses.

Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026 thumbnail

Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg·a month ago

NVIDIA Pays a 25% "Tariff" for Licenses to Export Advanced AI Chips

In a novel deal, the U.S. government granted NVIDIA export licenses for its H200 chips—advanced, but not cutting-edge—to markets like China. In return, NVIDIA pays a 25% fee on those sales. This establishes a new model where the government takes a direct revenue share from strategic tech companies in exchange for controlled market access.

Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026 thumbnail

Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg·a month ago

Japan's Trade Deal Uses an LP/GP Model to Fund U.S. Infrastructure

To reduce tariffs, Japan committed $550B to finance U.S. projects. Japan acts as an LP, providing equity from domestic bond sales. The U.S. is the GP, building the projects. Cash flow is split 50/50 until Japan is repaid, then flips to 90/10 for the U.S., creating a long-term revenue stream for the Treasury.

Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026 thumbnail

Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg·a month ago