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A viral Substack essay uses a fictional, sci-fi narrative of AI-driven economic collapse not just to scare readers, but to provoke tangible action. This strategy of "action-mongering" can be a powerful tool for lobbyists and advocates to illustrate the consequences of policy inaction and spur change.
Founders making glib comments about AI likely ending the world, even in jest, creates genuine fear and opposition among the public. This humor backfires, as people facing job automation and rising energy costs question why society is pursuing this technology at all, fueling calls to halt progress.
By framing competition with China as an existential threat, tech leaders create urgency and justification for government intervention like subsidies or favorable trade policies. This transforms a commercial request for financial support into a matter of national security, making it more compelling for policymakers.
Unlike previous technologies like the internet or smartphones, which enjoyed years of positive perception before scrutiny, the AI industry immediately faced a PR crisis of its own making. Leaders' early and persistent "AI will kill everyone" narratives, often to attract capital, have framed the public conversation around fear from day one.
The political left requires a central catastrophe narrative to justify its agenda of economic regulation and information control. As the "climate doomerism" narrative loses potency, "AI doomerism" is emerging as its successor—a new, powerful rationale for centralizing power over the tech industry.
The rhetoric around AI's existential risks is framed as a competitive tactic. Some labs used these narratives to scare investors, regulators, and potential competitors away, effectively 'pulling up the ladder' to cement their market lead under the guise of safety.
AI is experiencing a political backlash from day one, unlike social media's long "honeymoon" period. This is largely self-inflicted, as industry leaders like Sam Altman have used apocalyptic, "it might kill everyone" rhetoric as a marketing tool, creating widespread fear before the benefits are fully realized.
A viral essay highlights how each company rationally adopts AI to cut costs, but the collective result is mass unemployment and economic collapse. This demonstrates a textbook market failure where individual incentives contradict the overall good, suggesting a need for policy intervention.
Large AI labs cynically use existential risk arguments, originally from 'effective altruist' communities, to lobby for regulations that stifle competition. This strategy aims to create monopolies by targeting open-source models and international rivals like China.
The overwhelming majority of AI narratives are dystopian, creating a vacuum of positive visions for the future. Crafting concrete, positive fiction is a uniquely powerful way to influence societal goals and guide AI development, as demonstrated by pioneers who used fan fiction to inspire researchers.
Due to extreme uncertainty and a lack of real-time data, discussions about AI's future, even among top executives, are fundamentally about storytelling. The void of concrete knowledge is being filled by narratives of either utopia or dystopia, making the discourse more literary than purely analytical.