Contrary to popular belief, the market may be getting less efficient. The dominance of indexing, quant funds, and multi-manager pods—all with short time horizons—creates dislocations. This leaves opportunities for long-term investors to buy valuable assets that are neglected because their path to value creation is uncertain.

Widespread adoption of alternatives in "off-the-shelf" target-date funds faces immense inertia. The initial traction will come from large corporations with sophisticated internal investment teams creating custom target-date funds and from individual managed account platforms, which are far more nimble.

The primary decision-makers for mass-market 401(k) plans are often HR or finance teams, not investors. To shield their companies from employee lawsuits, they have historically prioritized funds with the lowest fees, creating a massive structural barrier for higher-fee alternative investments to gain traction.

For the sophisticated custom target-date funds that will be early adopters, private credit is the easiest first step. Unlike private equity, some private credit products can already be marked daily. This operational readiness, combined with liquidity from distributions, makes it the path of least resistance.

The US retirement system is built on a chassis of daily liquidity and pricing. While some hope the system might adapt to the monthly or quarterly nature of alternatives, the more likely outcome is that private market managers will be forced to develop reliable daily NAV calculations to gain access.

When converting a pre-tax 401(k) to a Roth IRA, you owe income tax on the entire amount. To preserve your principal, pay this tax bill from a separate savings account. Using the retirement funds to pay the tax permanently reduces the base for future compounding.

Adding higher-fee private assets to existing low-cost target-date funds is a non-starter. The go-to-market strategy will be to create entirely new fund series. This presents a significant sales challenge, as employers must be convinced to actively move employee assets to the new, more complex products.

The trend of companies staying private longer and raising huge late-stage rounds isn't just about VC exuberance. It's a direct consequence of a series of regulations (like Sarbanes-Oxley) that made going public extremely costly and onerous. As a result, the private capital markets evolved to fill the gap, fundamentally changing venture capital.

When moving funds from an old 401(k), instructing the provider to do a 'direct rollover' is crucial. If they send a check to you personally, the IRS considers it a taxable distribution, triggering mandatory withholding and penalties.