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Passing on a company you admire due to mismatched timing, valuation, or uncertainty is a difficult but crucial discipline. True investment judgment involves tracking a thesis over time and waiting for the right entry point, rather than just identifying a single good team or idea.
In venture capital, the greatest danger isn't investing at high valuations during a boom; it's ceasing to invest during a bust. The psychological pressure to stop when markets are negative is immense, but the best VCs maintain a disciplined, mechanical pace of investment to ensure they are active at the bottom.
For VCs, the financial impact of passing on a generational company far exceeds the losses from investments that go to zero. Author Eric Reiss emphasizes that investors must be psychologically resilient to these misses, as opportunity cost is the most expensive mistake.
An investor's best career P&L winners are not immediate yeses. They often involve an initial pass by either the investor or the company. This shows that timing and building relationships over multiple rounds can be more crucial than a single early-stage decision, as a 'missed round' isn't a 'missed company'.
Emerging VCs often feel pressured by their LPs to deploy capital quickly. However, this leads to rushed, unwise decisions. The superior strategy is to act like a sniper: wait patiently for a high-conviction opportunity and be ready to act decisively, rather than investing broadly just to show activity.
The absence of significant flaws or negative perspectives on a deal is a red flag, suggesting something was missed in diligence. True exceptionality is what carries a great investment, not a lack of risk. If everyone agrees it's a great deal, you're likely too late or wrong.
Generating disproportionate returns requires holding an original, contrarian perspective that the market initially dismisses as "stupid." The ability to persist with a non-consensus belief until it's proven correct is a core, and rare, quality of great investors.
While it's easy to stop funding obviously failing companies, the most difficult decisions involve startups that are doing okay but are not on a trajectory for venture-scale returns. The emotional challenge for VCs is balancing their supportive, founder-friendly role with the tough-minded discipline required for their LPs.
The venture capital business requires consistent investment, not sprinting and pausing based on market conditions. A common mistake is for VCs to stop investing during downturns. For companies with 50-100x growth potential, overpaying slightly on entry price is irrelevant, as the key is capturing the outlier returns, not timing the market.
The ideal period for venture investment—after a company is known but before its success becomes obvious—has compressed drastically. VCs are now forced to choose between investing in acute uncertainty or paying massive, near-public valuations.
Andreessen reflects that, specifically in early-stage venture, his firm's decisions to pass on promising companies because the valuation was too high have consistently proven to be mistakes. For the best opportunities, the potential for massive upside makes the entry price a secondary concern.