Current real estate deliveries were financed in the 2020-22 low-rate era, causing a temporary supply glut in high-demand sectors like Sunbelt apartments. Since new construction halted in 2023, today's depressed prices offer a unique entry point before supply normalizes and rents can accelerate.

A strategic divergence exists in EM corporate credit. Mandate-bound real money funds feel compelled to stay invested due to a lack of near-term negative catalysts, while more flexible hedge funds are actively taking short positions, betting that historically tight spreads will inevitably widen over the next 6-12 months.

The classic distressed debt strategy is broken. Market dislocation windows are now incredibly narrow, often lasting just days. Furthermore, low interest rates for the past decade eliminated the ability to earn meaningful carry on discounted debt. This has forced distressed funds to rebrand as 'capital solutions' and focus on private, structured deals.

Corporations are increasingly shifting from asset-heavy to capital-light models, often through complex transactions like sale-leasebacks. This strategic trend creates bespoke financing needs that are better served by the flexible solutions of private credit providers than by rigid public markets.

While default risk exists, the more pressing problem for credit investors is a severe supply-demand imbalance. A shortage of new M&A and corporate issuance, combined with massive sideline capital (e.g., $8T in money markets), keeps spreads historically tight and makes finding attractive opportunities the main challenge.

According to BlackRock's CIO Rick Reeder, the critical metric for the economy isn't the Fed Funds Rate, but a stable 10-year Treasury yield. This stability lowers volatility in the mortgage market, which is far more impactful for real-world borrowing, corporate funding, and international investor confidence.

The valuation gap between public and private real estate is historically wide. Sunbelt apartment REITs trade at implied cap rates of 6.5-7%, while similar private assets trade near 5-5.25%. This disconnect presents a compelling opportunity for public market investors to acquire quality assets at a significant discount.

For 40 years, falling rates pushed 'safe' bond funds into increasingly risky assets to chase yield. With rates now rising, these mis-categorized portfolios are the most vulnerable part of the financial system. A crisis in credit or sovereign debt is more probable than a stock-market-led crash.

A credit investor's true edge lies not in understanding a company's operations, but in mastering the right-hand side of the balance sheet. This includes legal structures, credit agreements, and bankruptcy processes. Private equity investors, who are owners, will always have superior knowledge of the business itself (the left-hand side).