Risk assessment tools used in courts are often trained on old data and fail to account for societal shifts in crime and policing, creating "cohort bias." This leads to massive overpredictions of an individual's likelihood to commit a crime, resulting in harsher, unjust sentences.

Intuitively, showing at-risk youth prison horrors should deter crime. However, systematic reviews of the 'Scared Straight' program revealed it backfired. Participants were statistically more likely to commit crimes compared to control groups, demonstrating how well-intentioned policy can cause harm.

Former Michigan Chief Justice Bridget McCormack argues that the legal system's probabilistic nature, driven by human fallibility, is a core inefficiency. Greater predictability would reduce disputes by allowing businesses and individuals to plan around clear, consistently enforced rules.

Steve Levitt's randomized experiment found that people struggling with a major life decision who were prompted by a coin flip to make a change were happier months later. This suggests we systematically underestimate the benefits of change and should default to it when facing a difficult choice.

Criminals, especially young ones, don't weigh potential punishments. They operate on a simple boolean logic: can they get away with it? Technology that dramatically increases the "clearance rate" (the percentage of solved crimes) acts as a powerful deterrent by changing that calculation.

Contrary to "tough on crime" rhetoric, research shows that the certainty of being caught is a more powerful deterrent than the length of the sentence. This suggests that resources for criminal justice reform are better spent on technologies and methods that increase the probability of capture, not just on harsher penalties.

Most criminals, especially young ones, operate on a simple boolean logic: will I get away with this? The severity of the punishment is a secondary concern. Therefore, increasing the crime "clearance rate"—the likelihood of being caught—is a far more effective deterrent than increasing prison sentences.

Potential offenders, especially young ones, are more influenced by the immediate probability of capture than the distant threat of severe punishment. Investing in police investigations to solve more crimes quickly, such as through expanded DNA databases, has a greater deterrent effect than simply lengthening sentences.

A German policy instructs authorities to avoid confronting individuals who might escalate. This effectively creates a two-tiered justice system where the weak and compliant are policed, while aggressive bullies are ignored. This incentivizes threatening behavior and destabilizes society.