The end of the zero-interest-rate period compressed lending margins, but it had a silver lining. It forced fintech companies to become 'full-stack' by acquiring bank charters and building significant revenue streams from customer deposits, ultimately making their business models more durable.

Banks oppose stablecoins because they disrupt a core profit center: the spread between low interest paid on deposits and high yields earned from investing those deposits in treasuries. Stablecoins can pass these yields directly to consumers, creating a competitive market.

Stablecoin market growth isn't driven by a single factor. Analysis reveals it has been fastest during periods when both Bitcoin prices and the broad US dollar index are appreciating simultaneously. This dual correlation points to a specific macro environment that is most conducive to stablecoin adoption.

The recent explosion of stablecoins wasn't due to a new financial innovation, but the maturation of underlying blockchain infrastructure. Cheaper and faster transactions on Layer 2 solutions and improved Layer 1s finally made large-scale, low-cost payments practical for real-world use.

The combination of AI, smart contracts, and stablecoins could create a "cauldron for credit market innovation." Circle's CEO imagines a future where credit decisions are cleared and settled with the efficiency and speed of a Google AdWords auction, dramatically increasing monetary velocity and access to capital.

For hundreds of millions in developing nations, stablecoins are not an investment vehicle but a capital preservation tool. Their core value is providing a simple hedge against high-inflation local currencies by pegging to the USD, a use case that far outweighs the desire for interest yield in those markets.

A potential future government strategy to manage borrowing costs involves creating a special class of T-bills exclusively for stablecoin issuers. These would carry an artificially low yield, preventing issuers from profiting while providing the government with cheap capital.

The stablecoin market isn't about everyone launching their own coin. Established players like Circle's USDC create powerful network effects through tens of thousands of API integrations with apps like Cash App and Coinbase. This utility makes it the default choice for developers, creating a significant competitive moat.

To avoid being classified as a bank, Coinbase's stablecoin model offers "rewards" for user activity like payments or trading, rather than paying interest directly on balances. This is a crucial legal distinction under new regulations allowing them to pass on yield from treasury reserves.