Unlike the early iPhone era, developers are hesitant to build for new hardware like the Apple Vision Pro without a proven audience. They now expect platform creators to de-risk development by first demonstrating a massive user base, shifting the market-building burden entirely onto the hardware maker.

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Unlike competitors feeling pressure to build proprietary AI foundation models, Apple can simply partner with providers like Google. This reveals Apple's true moat isn't the model itself but its massive hardware distribution network, giving it leverage to integrate best-in-class AI without the high cost of in-house development.

Despite analysts viewing live sports as a prime use case for the Apple Vision Pro, Apple's F1 partnership announcement omits plans for immersive 3D or spatial content. This failure to connect a major content acquisition with its new flagship hardware represents a significant missed opportunity to drive hardware adoption.

The true challenge for the rumored OpenAI hardware isn't production, but breaking through Apple's powerful ecosystem effects, particularly iMessage integration. User adoption of a new, screenless form factor is another major, unsolved problem that has stumped previous startups.

Luckey argues analysts misunderstand the Vision Pro's strategy. At $3,500, it's not a mass-market product. Its goal is to make VR highly desirable and aspirational. By solving the "want" problem first, Apple primes the market for future, lower-cost versions, avoiding the trap of making a cheap product nobody wants.

The personal computing revolution was ignited not by the Apple II computer itself, but by VisiCalc, the first spreadsheet program. This demonstrated a crucial market lesson: a single, indispensable piece of software (a 'killer app') can create the demand for an entire hardware platform.

Apple's Vision Pro is criticized for its weight, a core design flaw. Instead of waiting for Apple, a Chinese streamer engineered a clever solution using a helium balloon to make it weightless. This shows how crucial hardware improvements can emerge from the user community, effectively crowdsourcing fixes for Big Tech's products.

To stay relevant, tech platform companies must obsessively follow developers and startups. They are the primary source of insight into emerging workloads and platform requirements. This isn't just for partnerships, but for fundamental product strategy and learning.

Apple's failure to provide immersive, 3D spatial video for its new F1 partnership is a major missed opportunity for the Vision Pro. Live sports are a primary driver for VR/AR adoption. Offering only a standard 2D broadcast in a virtual environment fails to create a differentiated experience that would justify the hardware's cost for hardcore fans and drive platform adoption.

The fact that only 3,000 apps have been built specifically for Vision OS is a major red flag. Historically, developers flock to new Apple platforms to gain a first-mover advantage. This lack of enthusiasm indicates the platform's core flywheel—attracting developers to create content that attracts users—is failing.

While wearable tech like Meta's Ray-Ban glasses has compelling niche applications, it requires an overwhelming number of diverse, practical use cases to shift consumer behavior from entrenched devices like the iPhone. A single 'killer app' or niche purpose is insufficient for mass adoption.