Historically, humans moved from manual to cognitive labor as technology automated physical tasks. Emad Mostaque argues AI now automates cognitive work, creating an "intelligence inversion." There's no obvious higher-value domain left for human labor to escape to, unlike previous technological shifts.

AI will primarily threaten purely cognitive jobs, but roles combining thought with physical dexterity—like master electricians or plumbers—will thrive. The AI-driven infrastructure boom is increasing demand and pushing their salaries above even those of some Silicon Valley engineers.

Recent increases in the unemployment rate are almost entirely concentrated among college-educated workers, while remaining stable for other groups. This specific, non-obvious trend may be an early indicator of AI's disruptive effect on white-collar and knowledge-based professions.

AI is rapidly automating knowledge work, making white-collar jobs precarious. In contrast, physical trades requiring dexterity and on-site problem-solving (e.g., plumbing, painting) are much harder to automate. This will increase the value and demand for skilled blue-collar professionals.

Contrary to fears of mass unemployment, AI's biggest losers will likely be the upper-middle class. The traditionally secure, high-paying career paths in consulting and law are highly susceptible to AI disruption, while other socioeconomic groups may see more benefits.

The "pyramid replacement" theory posits that AI will first make junior analyst and other entry-level positions obsolete. As AI becomes more agentic, it will climb the corporate ladder, systematically replacing roles from the base of the pyramid upwards.

Contrary to popular belief, highly compensated cognitive work (lawyers, software engineers, financiers) is the most exposed to AI disruption. If a job can be done remotely with just a laptop, an advanced AI can likely operate in that same space. Physical jobs requiring robotics will be protected for longer due to cost and complexity.

Contrary to fears of automating low-skill work, economist Alan Blinder argues that AI is more likely to replace high-paying white-collar jobs in finance and professional services. Lower-wage manual and service roles are less vulnerable, a dynamic which could potentially compress the upper end of the income distribution.

In a sobering essay, the CEO of leading AI lab Anthropic has offered a concrete, near-term economic prediction. He forecasts massive job disruption for knowledge workers, moving beyond abstract existential risks to a specific warning about the immediate future of work.