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A 1% dividend yield seems historically low, but it's misleading. Including share buybacks, the total cash payout to shareholders is about 4%, in line with historical averages. Professor Ibbotson frames buybacks as a modern, more tax-efficient financial innovation for returning capital to shareholders.
Once a clear buy signal for investors, large-scale share repurchases now often indicate that a company with a legacy moat has no better use for its cash. This can be a red flag that its core business is being disrupted by new technology, as seen with cable networks and department stores.
Companies often announce and execute buybacks to appease the market, not because their stock is undervalued. This programmatic repurchasing, especially at cyclical peaks, destroys value. Truly value-accretive buybacks are rare because most managers lack the capital allocation skill to time them effectively.
Since the 1990s, U.S. companies have returned more capital through stock buybacks than dividends. An investor focused solely on dividend yield is missing the larger part of the shareholder return story and cannot accurately assess a company's total capital allocation strategy.
The argument that Disney's market cap is less than its acquisition costs presents a flawed picture of value creation. This analysis fails to account for the approximately $70 billion returned to shareholders via dividends and buybacks over the same period. A true assessment of an M&A strategy's success must include capital returned, not just final enterprise value.
Contrary to fears that buybacks harm liquidity, they are a critical advantage in illiquid markets like the UK. A consistent buyback program introduces a natural, daily buyer for a stock, providing a supportive price floor and predictable demand where none may exist.
Despite S&P 500 companies spending over a trillion dollars on share repurchases, the aggregate share count has not meaningfully decreased in 25 years. These buybacks primarily serve to counteract the massive stock dilution from executive compensation, creating an illusion of shareholder return while enriching insiders and levitating stock prices.
Companies termed "share cannibals" aggressively repurchase their own shares, especially when undervalued. This capital allocation strategy is often superior to dividends because it transfers value from sellers to long-term shareholders and acts as a high-return, low-risk investment in the company's own business.
UK fund managers, needing cash to meet investor redemptions, pressure their portfolio companies to pay dividends. This ignores more accretive capital allocation strategies like share buybacks, contributing to persistent undervaluation across the market.
Profitable, self-funded public companies that consistently use surplus cash for share repurchases are effectively executing a slow-motion management buyout. This process systematically increases the ownership percentage for the remaining long-term shareholders who, alongside management, will eventually "own the whole company."
Forcing companies to pay a base dividend plus a variable special dividend based on excess cash flow is a more effective capital return policy. This structure, used by some O&G companies, instills discipline, avoids value-destructive buybacks at market peaks, and aligns payouts with business cyclicality.