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When a city upzones, it becomes more attractive, pulling in new residents. If migration is slow ("molasses"), the new supply can lower prices in the short term. If migration is fast ("water"), demand may absorb new supply immediately, delaying price drops until a long-run equilibrium is reached.
The most effective way to lower housing prices is to increase supply. Instead of artificially freezing rents, which discourages investment, policymakers should remove regulations that make building new units difficult. More construction creates more competition, which naturally drives down prices for everyone.
While advocating for relaxed zoning, Mayor Lurie acknowledges it is not a silver bullet for housing affordability. He states that high interest rates, labor, and material costs are the primary blockers to new construction, meaning policy changes won't trigger immediate development or rent drops.
A key driver of recent rent inflation, especially for lower-cost housing, was the population increase from mass immigration. Citing a Wharton study, the speaker claims a 1% population increase in a city leads to a 1% rent increase, presenting a direct, quantitative link between immigration policy and housing affordability.
The difference in home price trends between US regions is not about weather or jobs, but housing supply. States in the South and West that permit widespread new construction are seeing prices fall, while "Not In My Backyard" (NIMBY) states in the Northeast and Midwest face shortages and rising prices.
Recent census data reveals a significant shift in U.S. internal migration. High housing costs are pushing residents out of traditionally fast-growing states like California, while more affordable states, including some in the Midwest, are experiencing population growth for the first time in a decade.
In markets like Silicon Valley, upzoning would increase land value so much that it would offset any decrease in structure price, making homeowners wealthier. Their opposition is often driven by non-economic factors or misinformation, not pure financial self-interest.
Austin's falling home values, caused by a massive expansion of housing supply, are a feature, not a bug. This 'demise' makes the city more affordable, attracting young workers and families and securing its future economic vitality, unlike supply-constrained legacy cities.
When an area becomes desirable, prices rise. The market's natural response is for entrepreneurs to build more housing, stabilizing prices. However, 'Not In My Backyard' (NIMBY) policies prevent this, protecting existing homeowners' property values at the expense of everyone else. The core issue is artificially restricted supply, not demand.
The pandemic-era migration to remote work hotspots is reversing. As inward migration slows and borrowing costs rise, cities like Austin and Denver now lead the US in the share of home sellers forced to reduce their asking prices, creating a new wave of economic pressure on top of declining commercial property values.
Research shows new immigrants are absorbed into the housing market faster than the labor market. A policy shift towards border shutdowns and deportations would therefore likely ease shelter inflation more quickly than it would ease wage pressures, creating an unintuitive economic effect.