According to PIMCO's CIO, post-crisis regulation heavily targets the last failure point (e.g., banks and consumer lending post-GFC). This makes previously regulated sectors safer while risk migrates to areas that escaped scrutiny, like today's non-financial corporate credit market.

Despite Dodd-Frank providing tools to wind down failing mega-banks, former FDIC Chair Sheila Bair believes regulators lack the political will to ever use them. This implicit guarantee of a future bailout is the "unspoken rationale" driving the largest banks' relentless push for lower capital requirements.

The regional banking crisis and subsequent regulatory scrutiny forced many banks to exit complex, capital-intensive businesses like asset-based lending to smaller companies. This retreat has eliminated key competition for non-bank lenders, who can step in to fill the void without the same regulatory burdens.

Sheila Bair argues private credit's dangers lie in investor protection, not systemic risk, due to its lower leverage compared to banks. She points to conflicts of interest, valuation opacity, and liquidity issues as reasons why the asset class is unsuitable for retail investors and 401(k) plans.

While monetary policy gets the headlines, the Fed's role as the key regulator of the financial system—influencing bank capital, liquidity, and lending practices—arguably has a more direct and significant influence on the real economy than interest rate decisions.

Both the Bush and Clinton administrations promoted policies to increase homeownership, pushing banks to lower lending standards. This government-led initiative, aimed at social goals like ending redlining, fueled the subprime mortgage bubble that ultimately collapsed the financial system, implicating policy makers alongside banks.

While post-GFC regulations targeted "too big to fail" institutions, their primary victim was the community banking sector. The new regime made it "too small to succeed," causing half of these banks to disappear. This choked off credit for small businesses and real estate, hindering Main Street's recovery.

Banks can use more leverage and hold less capital by lending to a private credit fund than by making the same risky loans directly to a business. Former FDIC Chair Sheila Bair states this regulatory arbitrage in risk-based capital rules is the primary driver of the private credit boom.

The Basel III regulations, intended to de-risk the financial system by making risky lending expensive for banks, had an unintended consequence. The demand for risky loans didn't vanish; it simply migrated from the regulated banking sector to the opaque, unregulated private credit market, creating a new systemic risk.