Ben Thompson argues AI apps should adopt a Meta-style advertising model based on deep user understanding, rather than Google-style contextual ads tied to prompts. This avoids conflicts of interest and surfaces products users didn't know they needed, creating more value for both users and advertisers.

Unlike short search queries, AI conversations provide thousands of words of context on user intent. This rich data enables superior ad targeting and monetization potential, creating a market opportunity so large that it can support new players alongside giants like Google and OpenAI.

Advertising within LLMs like ChatGPT can be a win-win. For discovery queries (e.g., "what's the best tool for X?"), a relevant ad acts as an additional, valuable suggestion rather than an interruption. This improves the user's discovery process while creating a high-intent channel for advertisers.

OpenAI's potential $100B advertising business has a unique moat. It can combine search-like query intent (what users want, like Google) with deep conversational context (who users are, like Meta). This fusion of data types creates a powerful targeting capability that neither search nor social platforms possess alone.

The complex ad tech landscape can be boiled down to three viable business models. A company must either 1) own a first-party surface with coveted users (Google), 2) become the best at delivering a specific, measurable result (Applovin), or 3) be the exclusive demand aggregator for large advertisers (The Trade Desk).

OpenAI plans to personalize ads not just on immediate queries but by analyzing a user's entire chat history. This creates a powerful hybrid of Google's intent-based advertising and Meta's interest-based profiling, going beyond simple sponsored links to offer deeply contextual promotions.

AI conversations capture high-intent moments, allowing ads to target active decision-making rather than passive attention-grabbing like social media. This fundamental difference could lead to significantly higher average revenue per user (ARPU), making social media's ad performance a floor, not a ceiling for AI platforms.

The existence of the Direct-to-Consumer (D2C) e-commerce sector is a direct result of Meta's advertising platform. This demonstrates that advertising can be an input for economic growth, creating entirely new markets and businesses, rather than simply being a fixed percentage of GDP or a cost center.

Traditional e-commerce largely captures existing purchase intent by shifting offline sales online. In contrast, live commerce platforms like Whatnot are demand-expansionary. They create new demand through discovery and entertainment, encouraging users to buy things they didn't know they wanted, effectively growing the total addressable market.