Goldman Sachs is divesting consumer-facing businesses like Marcus and its credit card to refocus on high-margin corporate advisory. Its stock is at an all-time high, validating a strategy where earning a small percentage (e.g., 0.2%) on multi-billion dollar transactions is far more profitable than serving millions of smaller retail customers.
Official financial segments often reflect bureaucracy, not true business economics. By creating a 'Shadow P&L' through deductive analysis, investors can uncover massive hidden costs in non-core initiatives, as ValueAct did with Microsoft's hardware divisions.
Don't chase every deal. Like a spearfisherman, anchor in a strategic area and wait patiently for the 'big fish'—a once-in-a-decade opportunity—then act decisively. This requires years of preparation and the discipline to let smaller opportunities pass by, focusing only on transformative deals.
Strong, cash-rich businesses often become unfocused and bloated, tolerating poor decisions that would bankrupt lesser firms. ValueAct Capital calls this the 'disease of abundance,' which they aim to cure by refocusing management on core strengths.
In the hybrid capital market, the ability to deploy capital at scale is a significant competitive advantage. While many firms can handle smaller $20-40 million deals, very few can quickly underwrite and commit to a $500+ million transaction. This scarcity of scaled players creates a less competitive, inefficient market for those who can operate at that level.
Top-tier VC firms like Andreessen Horowitz are evolving beyond traditional venture investing. They are mirroring the playbook of private equity giants like Blackstone by acquiring other asset managers, expanding into new verticals like wealth management, and preparing to go public, prioritizing AUM growth.
High customer concentration risk is mitigated during hypergrowth phases. When customers are focused on speed and market capture, they prioritize effectiveness over efficiency. This provides a window for suppliers to extract high margins, as customers don't have the time or focus to optimize costs or build in-house alternatives.
The most lucrative exit for a startup is often not an IPO, but an M&A deal within an oligopolistic industry. When 3-4 major players exist, they can be forced into an irrational bidding war driven by the fear of a competitor acquiring the asset, leading to outcomes that are even better than going public.
The era of generating returns through leverage and multiple expansion is over. Future success in PE will come from driving revenue growth, entering at lower multiples, and adding operational expertise, particularly in the fragmented middle market where these opportunities are more prevalent.
Traditional SaaS metrics like 80%+ gross margins are misleading for AI companies. High inference costs lower margins, but if the absolute gross profit per customer is multiples higher than a SaaS equivalent, it's a superior business. The focus should shift from margin percentages to absolute gross profit dollars and multiples.
In a market dominated by short-term traders and passive indexers, companies crave long-duration shareholders. Firms that hold positions for 5-10 years and focus on long-term strategy gain a competitive edge through better access to management, as companies are incentivized to engage with stable partners over transient capital.