When a bank loan is repaid, the money created for that loan ceases to exist; it isn't just transferred. Widespread debt paydown, often seen as financially responsible, reduces the overall money supply. This directly shrinks GDP and can trigger recessions.

Governments with massive debt cannot afford to keep interest rates high, as refinancing becomes prohibitively expensive. This forces central banks to lower rates and print money, even when it fuels asset bubbles. The only exits are an unprecedented productivity boom (like from AI) or a devastating economic collapse.

A recent behavioral shift shows households are using extra cash, like tax refunds, to pay down debt rather than increase spending. This deleveraging due to affordability concerns means that any new government stimulus would likely have a much smaller effect on economic growth than historical models would predict.

Government projections showing exponential, unsustainable debt growth are flawed because they model a straight line forward, ignoring historical data. As economist Steve Keen points out, debt-to-GDP ratios have always fluctuated in cycles; modeling a continuous, ahistorical trend is inherently misleading and creates false alarms.

Widespread cancellation of medical debt, while well-intentioned, may remove consumer pressure on providers. If patients don't need to shop around or question prices because they anticipate forgiveness, it eliminates a key market force needed to control escalating costs.

Monetary stimulus like low interest rates isn't a guaranteed fix for a stagnant economy. As seen in Japan, if a population's psychology shifts toward debt aversion after a major bust, they will refuse to borrow and spend regardless of how cheap money becomes, trapping the economy.

Blanket student loan forgiveness fails to address the root cause: skyrocketing tuition fueled by easy credit. A better solution is to force universities to have skin in the game by making them financially liable for a percentage of defaulted loans, which would incentivize responsible lending and curb price inflation.

Tyler Cowen predicts the US will eventually resort to several years of ~7% inflation to manage its national debt. This strategy, while damaging to living standards, is politically more palatable than raising taxes or cutting spending. Rapid, AI-driven productivity growth is the only plausible alternative to this outcome.

Blanket student debt forgiveness can unintentionally increase education prices. It creates a moral hazard where students and families are less likely to shop for the best value, assuming future debt might also be forgiven. This lack of consumer price sensitivity allows universities to raise tuition without consequence.