Anecdotal evidence suggests even affluent consumers are pulling back on spending, despite a strong stock market. This may be driven by concerns over the weakening job market, as even well-to-do parents worry about their adult children's employment prospects, creating caution across the family unit.

Policymakers are concerned that waiting for clear data on labor market weakness could be too late. They recognize that once layoffs start to "snowball" and feed on each other, the deterioration can accelerate rapidly and non-linearly, making it crucial to be forward-looking rather than reactive to lagging indicators.

The unemployment rate for college-educated young men has surged to 7%, matching that of their peers without a degree. This parity indicates that a traditional degree's value in securing entry-level employment is eroding for this demographic, challenged by AI automation and increased competition from experienced workers.

The official unemployment rate is misleadingly low because when disgruntled workers give up looking for a job, they exit the labor force and are no longer counted as 'unemployed.' This artificially improves the headline number while masking underlying economic weakness and anger among young job seekers.

While the headline number of job openings in the JOLTS report appears strong, it's a misleading signal. A record-low quits rate indicates workers are frozen in their jobs and lack confidence in the labor market, painting a picture of stagnation rather than dynamism.

A bipartisan legislative effort is being driven by stark warnings that AI will eliminate entry-level roles. Senator Mark Warner predicts unemployment for recent college graduates could surge from 9% to 25% "very shortly," highlighting the immediate economic threat to the youngest workforce segment.

Job seekers use AI to generate resumes en masse, forcing employers to use AI filters to manage the volume. This creates a vicious cycle where more AI is needed to beat the filters, resulting in a "low-hire, low-fire" equilibrium. While activity seems high, actual hiring has stalled, masking a significant economic disruption.

Robert Kaplan suggests the labor market's sluggishness might not be a simple cyclical slowdown. He points to a significant "matching problem" where open jobs don't align with the skills of job seekers. This structural issue limits the effectiveness of monetary policy as a solution.

Companies that over-hired in 2022 are now stuck with expensive employees who won't leave due to a weak job market. This creates a bottleneck, forcing companies to eventually lay off these 'seniors' to make room for new, cheaper 'freshmen' hires, signaling a turn in the labor market.