The perception of ATMs as a declining 'sunset' industry creates a valuation discount. However, similar to tobacco, such industries can generate fantastic returns through disciplined capital allocation, even with flat or declining revenue, if the market has overly pessimistic expectations.

'ATM as a Service' is an easy sell for regional banks that lack scale. However, it's a very difficult sell for large national banks like JPMorgan, which already have the scale to manage their own ATM fleets efficiently and are hesitant to outsource critical infrastructure.

The logistics of servicing ATMs create a powerful local density advantage. Adding a new bank's ATM to an existing route has minimal extra cost, leading to extremely high incremental gross profit margins of 60-80% on new service contracts.

The investment thesis for NCR Atlas isn't about selling more ATMs (the "razor"). It's about increasing the lifetime value and profit per unit through its high-margin "ATM as a Service" offering (the "razor blade"), which increases the price of the service over time.

While consumer fintech gets the hype, the most systematically important opportunities lie in building 'utility services' that connect existing institutions. These complex, non-sexy infrastructure plays—like deposit networks—enable the entire ecosystem to function more efficiently, creating a deep moat by becoming critical financial market plumbing.

Like Redbox DVD kiosks were displaced by streaming, a key risk for NCR Atlas is that ATMs will be rendered obsolete by digital banking and mobile payments, despite arguments about niche use cases or a slow, manageable decline.

Metropolis couldn't sell its SaaS solution to incumbent parking operators because their business model relied on inefficient labor. These companies operate like staffing agencies on a cost-plus model, creating a fundamental disincentive to adopt tech that would reduce their core revenue stream.

Major competitors in the broader card manufacturing space, Idemia and Thalys, lack Composecure's specialized technology. As a result, they act as resellers, leveraging their larger sales forces to distribute Composecure's products internationally, turning potential threats into a sales channel.

New technology like AI doesn't automatically displace incumbents. Established players like DoorDash and Google successfully defend their turf by leveraging deep-rooted network effects (e.g., restaurant relationships, user habits). They can adopt or build competing tech, while challengers struggle to replicate the established ecosystem.