Google DeepMind's Demis Hassabis frames OpenAI's move into advertising as a 'tell' that contradicts claims of AGI being 'around the corner.' He argues that if a company truly believed in imminent, world-changing AGI, it wouldn't be distracted by building conventional ad products.

A consortium including leaders from Google and DeepMind has defined AGI as matching the cognitive versatility of a "well-educated adult" across 10 domains. This new framework moves beyond abstract debate, showing a concrete 30-point leap in AGI score from GPT-4 (27%) to a projected GPT-5 (57%).

Hassabis argues AGI isn't just about solving existing problems. True AGI must demonstrate the capacity for breakthrough creativity, like Einstein developing a new theory of physics or Picasso creating a new art genre. This sets a much higher bar than current systems.

There's a stark contrast in AGI timeline predictions. Newcomers and enthusiasts often predict AGI within months or a few years. However, the field's most influential figures, like Ilya Sutskever and Andrej Karpathy, are now signaling that true AGI is likely decades away, suggesting the current paradigm has limitations.

Anthropic CEO Dario Amadei's two-year AGI timeline, far shorter than DeepMind's five-year estimate, is rooted in his prediction that AI will automate most software engineering within 12 months. This "code AGI" is seen as the inflection point for a recursive feedback loop where AI rapidly improves itself.

Demis Hassabis, CEO of Google DeepMind, warns that the societal transition to AGI will be immensely disruptive, happening at a scale and speed ten times greater than the Industrial Revolution. This suggests that historical parallels are inadequate for planning and preparation.

A consensus is forming among tech leaders that AGI is about a decade away. This specific timeframe may function as a psychological tool: it is optimistic enough to inspire action, but far enough in the future that proponents cannot be easily proven wrong in the short term, making it a safe, non-falsifiable prediction for an uncertain event.

Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis argues that today's large models are insufficient for AGI. He believes progress requires reintroducing algorithmic techniques from systems like AlphaGo, specifically planning and search, to enable more robust reasoning and problem-solving capabilities beyond simple pattern matching.

Shane Legg proposes "Minimal AGI" is achieved when an AI can perform the cognitive tasks a typical person can. It's not about matching Einstein, but about no longer failing at tasks we'd expect an average human to complete. This sets a more concrete and achievable initial benchmark for the field.