The idea of a truly "open web" was a brief historical moment. Powerful, proprietary "organizing layers" like search engines and app stores inevitably emerge to centralize ecosystems and capture value. Today's AI chatbots are simply the newest form of these organizing layers.
OpenAI embraces the 'platform paradox' by selling API access to startups that compete directly with its own apps like ChatGPT. The strategy is to foster a broad ecosystem, believing that enabling competitors is necessary to avoid losing the platform race entirely.
A new wave of startups, like ex-Twitter CEO's Parallel, is attracting significant investment to build web infrastructure specifically for AI agents. Instead of ranking links for humans, these systems deliver optimized data directly to AI models, signaling a fundamental shift in how the internet will be structured and consumed.
In an AI-driven ecosystem, data and content need to be fluidly accessible to various systems and agents. Any SaaS platform that feels like a "walled garden," locking content away, will be rejected by power users. The winning platforms will prioritize open, interoperable access to user data.
There is emerging evidence of a "pay-to-play" dynamic in AI search. Platforms like ChatGPT seem to disproportionately cite content from sources with which they have commercial deals, such as the Financial Times and Reddit. This suggests paid partnerships can heavily influence visibility in AI-generated results.
As users delegate purchasing and research to AI agents, brands will lose control over the buyer's journey. Websites must be optimized for agent-to-agent communication, not just human interaction, as AI assistants will find, compare, and even purchase products autonomously.
The current trend toward closed, proprietary AI systems is a misguided and ultimately ineffective strategy. Ideas and talent circulate regardless of corporate walls. True, defensible innovation is fostered by openness and the rapid exchange of research, not by secrecy.
The Browser Company's vision shifted from optimizing tab management to seeing the browser as the ideal "personal intelligence layer." The browser itself is just the enabling technology; the real value comes from using its unique access to all user context (apps, queries, history) to power a miraculous AI assistant.
AI favors incumbents more than startups. While everyone builds on similar models, true network effects come from proprietary data and consumer distribution, both of which incumbents own. Startups are left with narrow problems, but high-quality incumbents are moving fast enough to capture these opportunities.
The future of AI is not just humans talking to AI, but a world where personal agents communicate directly with business agents (e.g., your agent negotiating a loan with a bank's agent). This will necessitate new communication protocols and guardrails, creating a societal transformation comparable to the early internet.