Contrary to conventional wisdom, re-accelerating inflation can be a positive for stocks. It indicates that corporations have regained pricing power, which boosts earnings growth. This improved earnings outlook can justify a lower equity risk premium, allowing for higher stock valuations.

The long end of the bond curve has moved up simply to reflect tighter short-term policy, but has not seen a meaningful expansion of risk premiums. This suggests the market is complacent, underestimating the risk that this oil shock could extend the period of above-target inflation for years, similar to the post-2022 experience.

The current inflationary period is analogous to the 1970s, structured as a three-act play. We have passed Act 1 (initial shock) and Act 2 (premature all-clear), and the Iran conflict is the catalyst for Act 3 (inflation's resurgence), similar to how the 1973 Yom Kippur War triggered a new wave.

A single major geopolitical event, like the discussed Iran conflict, can simultaneously and rapidly reverse numerous positive, interconnected economic indicators. This demonstrates the extreme fragility of prevailing market storylines, flipping everything from energy prices and equity performance to inflation and central bank policy.

If the conflict leads to persistently high oil prices and sticky inflation, bonds may fail to act as a safe-haven asset. Both stock and bond prices could fall in tandem, undermining traditional balanced portfolio strategies.

It's the volatility and unpredictability within the supply chain environment—rather than the magnitude of a single shock—that can dramatically amplify the inflationary effects of other events, like energy price spikes. This suggests central banks need situation-specific responses.

The knee-jerk reaction to a geopolitical shock is often a bond market rally (flight to safety). However, if the shock impacts supply (e.g., oil), the market can quickly reverse. It pivots from pricing geopolitical risk to pricing the risk of persistent inflation, forcing yields higher in anticipation of rate hikes.

Unlike historical precedents, the current geopolitical conflict has triggered a significant sell-off in US long bonds. This suggests a regime change where high sovereign debt and inflation fears mean bonds no longer serve their traditional flight-to-safety role.

The narrative of "well-anchored" inflation expectations is being tested by the oil shock. The 5-year breakeven inflation rate, a key market indicator, has risen 20 basis points from 2.4% to 2.6%. This indicates investors are beginning to price in higher inflation for longer, not simply looking through the shock.