Policies that pump financial markets disproportionately benefit asset holders, widening the wealth gap and fueling social angst. As a result, the mega-cap tech companies symbolizing this inequality are becoming prime targets for populist politicians seeking to channel public anger for electoral gain.

While high capex is often seen as a negative, for giants like Alphabet and Microsoft, it functions as a powerful moat in the AI race. The sheer scale of spending—tens of billions annually—is something most companies cannot afford, effectively limiting the field of viable competitors.

Contrary to the belief that number two players can be viable, most tech markets are winner-take-all. The market leader captures the vast majority of economic value, making investments in second or third-place companies extremely risky.

Today's market is more fragile than during the dot-com bubble because value is even more concentrated in a few tech giants. Ten companies now represent 40% of the S&P 500. This hyper-concentration means the failure of a single company or trend (like AI) doesn't just impact a sector; it threatens the entire global economy, removing all robustness from the system.

Large tech companies are buying up compute from smaller cloud providers not for immediate need, but as a defensive strategy. By hoarding scarce GPU capacity, they prevent competitors from accessing critical resources, effectively cornering the market and stifling innovation from rivals.

History shows that transformative innovations like airlines, vaccines, and PCs, while beneficial to society, often fail to create sustained, concentrated shareholder value as they become commoditized. This suggests the massive valuations in AI may be misplaced, with the technology's benefits accruing more to users than investors in the long run.

While many investors hunt for pure monopolies, most tech markets naturally support a handful of large players in an oligopoly structure. Markets like payments (Stripe, Adyen, PayPal) demonstrate that multiple large, successful companies can coexist, a crucial distinction for market analysis and investment strategy.

For current AI valuations to be realized, AI must deliver unprecedented efficiency, likely causing mass job displacement. This would disrupt the consumer economy that supports these companies, creating a fundamental contradiction where the condition for success undermines the system itself.

Recent streaming price increases, which are vastly outpacing inflation, serve as the primary evidence that the market is already too consolidated. Further mergers would grant companies like Netflix unchecked pricing power, transferring wealth from consumers and labor directly to shareholders in an oligopolistic environment.