The belief that rising home prices create wealth is a dangerous illusion. Since you must buy another inflated property after selling, you don't actually gain anything. This collective myth primarily serves to lock out first-time buyers and stifle economic mobility for the next generation.

There is a fundamental conflict in housing policy: making homes affordable by increasing supply would lower prices, devaluing the single largest asset for the massive voting bloc of current homeowners. Politicians are therefore incentivized to maintain high prices.

Existing homeowners have resisted price cuts due to low mortgage rates, but they will eventually face the same market realities builders are addressing now. This delayed "price discovery" is expected to cause a 1-2% nationwide decline in resale home prices in 2026.

The historically low number of home sales isn't just about buyer affordability. A major factor is seller reluctance; existing homeowners are "locked in" by their low-rate mortgages and find it financially unattractive to sell and buy a new property at current higher rates.

The US housing market is frozen not by insolvency but because homeowners are locked into low mortgage rates. With transactions at crisis-era lows but driven by non-discretionary events like death and divorce, pent-up demand creates a "coiled spring" scenario for when rates ease.

Homeowners who see their property value double aren't actually wealthier. If they sell, they must buy another, equally inflated house. The "gain" is purely psychological unless they relocate to a cheaper area or downsize, which most people do not do.

A major driver of today's housing scarcity is that homeowners, particularly Boomers, who refinanced into sub-3% mortgages have no financial incentive to ever sell. This seemingly positive economic condition has had the negative side effect of locking vast amounts of housing inventory in place, worsening the supply crisis.

Drew Warshaw frames the "Not In My Backyard" (NIMBY) phenomenon as a rational, if selfish, economic decision. Incumbent homeowners are incentivized to restrict new housing supply because basic economics suggest that increasing supply could decrease the value of their primary asset: their home.

The apparent spike in median home prices is a statistical artifact. Owners with ultra-low mortgage rates are not selling, so transactions are skewed toward higher-priced homes, artificially raising the median. This obscures significant pent-up demand that could be unleashed if rates fall.