The US President's move to centralize AI regulation over individual states is likely a response to lobbying from major tech companies. They need a stable, nationwide framework to protect their massive capital expenditures on data centers. A patchwork of state laws creates uncertainty and the risk of being forced into costly relocations.

The appointment of an AI czar follows a historical US pattern of creating such roles during crises like WWI or the oil crisis. It's a mechanism to bypass slow government bureaucracies for fast-moving industries, signaling that the government views AI with the same urgency as a national emergency requiring swift, coordinated action.

Critical media narratives targeting experienced tech leaders in government aim to intimidate future experts from public service. By framing deep industry experience as an inherent conflict of interest, these stories create a vacuum filled by less-qualified academics and career politicians, ultimately harming the quality of policymaking.

In China, academics have significant influence on policymaking, partly due to a cultural tradition that highly values scholars. Experts deeply concerned about existential AI risks have briefed the highest levels of government, suggesting that policy may be less susceptible to capture by commercial tech interests compared to the West.

Anthropic is publicly warning that frontier AI models are becoming "real and mysterious creatures" with signs of "situational awareness." This high-stakes position, which calls for caution and regulation, has drawn accusations of "regulatory capture" from the White House AI czar, putting Anthropic in a precarious political position.

Despite populist rhetoric, the administration needs the economic stimulus and stock market rally driven by AI capital expenditures. In return, tech CEOs gain political favor and a permissive environment, creating a symbiotic relationship where power politics override public concerns about the technology.

The US has historically benefited from a baseline level of high competence in its government officials, regardless of party. This tradition is now eroding, being replaced by a focus on loyalty over expertise. This degradation from competence to acolytes poses a significant, underrecognized threat to national stability and global standing.

The political battle over AI is not a standard partisan fight. Factions within both Democratic and Republican parties are forming around pro-regulation, pro-acceleration, and job-protection stances, creating complex, cross-aisle coalitions and conflicts.

Advocating for a single national AI policy is often a strategic move by tech lobbyists and friendly politicians to preempt and invalidate stricter regulations emerging at the state level. Under the guise of creating a unified standard, this approach effectively ensures the actual policy is weak or non-existent, allowing the industry to operate with minimal oversight.