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Relying on elite aviators to evaluate small drones leads to selecting systems that demand extreme piloting skill. Because widespread military use requires mass fielding to average soldiers with minimal training, evaluations must prioritize autonomous, self-handling platforms over those that require exceptional manual dexterity.
Wargaming suggests that instead of flying alongside manned aircraft, unmanned systems are most effective when decoupled. Their best roles are as long-endurance decoys to confuse incoming missiles or as autonomous swarms in a designated kill zone.
Skydio's drones are designed as 'force multipliers' where AI handles complex tasks like navigation, obstacle avoidance, and subject tracking. This frees the human operator to focus on high-level mission objectives, like assessing a situation, rather than the mechanics of flying the drone.
Forcing autonomous platforms to integrate directly into manned combat units compromises their unique operational value. Autonomous systems possess distinct risk profiles, greater persistence, and expendability compared to crewed platforms. Subordinating them to human formations forces them to operate merely as extensions of manned tactics rather than enabling distinct operational concepts, specialized reach, and independent formations.
Unlike the US model of a single "drone guy" per platoon, Ukraine has entire battalions focused on drone warfare. These units have frontline labs that debrief missions and iterate on drone technology within days, creating a dramatically faster innovation cycle.
Inspired by self-driving cars, a framework for drone autonomy has emerged: L1 (Terminal Guidance), L2 (Bombing), L3 (Target Detection/Engagement), L4 (Navigation), and L5 (Takeoff/Landing). This provides a clear roadmap for developing and classifying autonomous capabilities on the battlefield.
An FPV drone is already three orders of magnitude more versatile than an artillery shell. Adding full autonomy adds another *four* orders of magnitude in capability by expanding the user base (100x), increasing mission success (10x), and improving utility per drone (10x).
The high cost of advanced aircraft like the F-35 fighter jet stems from ensuring pilot safety. Drones, by being unmanned, remove this expensive constraint. Since crashes are acceptable, drones can be produced cheaply and at scale, unlocking their disruptive economic potential across industries.
Creating a centralized four-star command for autonomous weapons risks stalling real-time testing conducted by theater task forces. Rather than accelerating deployment, a centralized headquarters introduces committee-driven staffing processes, hundreds of headquarters personnel, and bureaucratic delays. Distributed experimentation at the tactical edge allows faster operational feedback and prototyping than a centralized Pentagon clearinghouse can provide.
Contrary to the notion of automated warfare, the proliferation of drones is highly manpower-intensive. It requires dedicated units for operation, maintenance, and countering enemy drones. Relying solely on technology creates a single point of failure and doesn't eliminate the need for robust force generation and management.
The rise of drones is more than an incremental improvement; it's a paradigm shift. Warfare is moving from human-manned systems where lives are always at risk to autonomous ones where mission success hinges on technological reliability. This changes cost-benefit analyses and reduces direct human exposure in conflict.