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Corporate profits now command a record 16.7% share of national income. While a reduced labor share is a factor, a more significant driver has been the long-term decline in corporate interest payments. This reduction in borrowing costs has directly inflated corporate profits to historic highs.

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Michael Mauboussin's research reveals a surprising trend. Despite a long period of low interest rates, non-financial corporate debt to total capital is around 15% today, significantly lower than the historical average of 26%. This suggests balance sheets are stronger than commonly perceived.

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A key paradox in the Q1 data is the strength of corporate profits despite weak overall economic income (GDI). This divergence suggests a distributional shift where businesses are capturing a larger share of the economic pie, likely due to labor's diminished bargaining power and aggressive price increases.

The puzzle of persistently high stock market valuations can be illuminated by macroeconomic factors. For instance, the long-term decline in labor's share of national output directly translates into higher corporate profits and, consequently, higher valuations for firms, bridging the gap between macro and finance.

Corporate Profit Share of National Income Hits Record 16.7%, Fueled by Lower Interest Costs | RiffOn