Lara Banks of Mechanic Capital warns against the 'value trap' of investing in a cheaper, lower-quality company. Experience shows it's better to pay a premium for a top-tier company with a strong management team, as the perceived discount on a lesser competitor rarely compensates for its inherent weaknesses.
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Successful concentration isn't just about doubling down on winners. It's equally about avoiding the dispersion of capital and attention. This means resisting the industry bias to automatically do a pro-rata investment in a company just because another VC offered a higher valuation.
VCs generate outsized returns by backing 'alpha'—fundamentally different ways of solving a problem. Many funds in the 2020-2021 ZIRP era mistakenly chased 'beta'—backing slightly better execution of known models. This operational bet is not true venture capital and rarely produces foundational companies.
VCs often pass on great deals by overweighting the fear of future competition from giants like Google. The better mental model is to invest in founders with demonstrable "strength of strengths," accepting that some weaknesses are okay, rather than seeking a flawless profile.
Top-tier venture capital firms are developing internal platforms with such demonstrable results and strong reputations that founders choose them over competitors offering higher valuations, seeking access to their unique support ecosystem.
An investor passed on a fund that paid 30-40x revenue for startups, believing quality alone justifies price. Three years later, that fund and its predecessors are underwater. This illustrates that even for great companies, undisciplined entry valuations and the assumption of multiple expansion can lead to poor returns.
Top-performing, founder-led businesses often don't want to sell control. A non-control investment strategy allows access to this exclusive deal flow, tapping into the "founder alpha" from high skin-in-the-game leaders who consistently outperform hired CEOs.
The venture capital business requires consistent investment, not sprinting and pausing based on market conditions. A common mistake is for VCs to stop investing during downturns. For companies with 50-100x growth potential, overpaying slightly on entry price is irrelevant, as the key is capturing the outlier returns, not timing the market.
This provides a simple but powerful framework for venture investing. For companies in markets with demonstrably huge TAMs (e.g., AI coding), valuation is secondary to backing the winner. For markets with a more uncertain or constrained TAM (e.g., vertical SaaS), traditional valuation discipline and entry price matter significantly.
The mental and emotional cost of owning a struggling, low-quality business often outweighs the perceived value of its cheap price. Paying a premium for a well-run, easier-to-hold company can yield better returns, both financially and in peace of mind.
True alpha in venture capital is found at the extremes. It's either in being a "market maker" at the earliest stages by shaping a raw idea, or by writing massive, late-stage checks where few can compete. The competitive, crowded middle-stages offer less opportunity for outsized returns.
